Minyanville's Jack Lavery Calls for Economic Bottom to Occur in August 2009

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Former Merrill Lynch Global Chief Economist Is Cautiously Optimistic

Hoofy and Boo's News and Views

Minyanville's Jack Lavery, the former global chief economist for Merrill Lynch and one of the first to predict the start of the current economic recession, is forecasting that this recession will bottom out in August 2009.

His forecast is based on several key indicators, including a study of the unemployment claims data, the 1.8 percent rise in manufactured durable goods orders in May 2009, and a plethora of other indicators. But, he is also quick to characterize his prediction, noting that it will be an "underwhelming recovery," with housing prices continuing to decline and unemployment rates continuing to rise into 2010. Lavery attributes the continuing decline in housing prices to the housing inventory overhang at current selling rates, material builder concessions, and the continued high incidence of foreclosures and distressed sales.

Although Lavery remains cautiously optimistic about the recovery, he also points out that higher interest rates imperil the recovery before it even starts. "The recovery will be L shaped in its initial stage," he adds.

A contributor to Minyanville.com, the Emmy Award-winning financial community, Lavery pens the The Lavery Insight, a concise, weekly analysis of the economy and its effect on the financial markets. Every week, Lavery sorts through indicators, collective opinions and consensus theories to decipher what's important and why in an easy-to-digest two-page update. His realistic approach delivers succinct, no-nonsense analysis about what directly affects the financial markets. In addition, Lavery produces each week about 10 other Lavery Insight Reports, one page analyses of indicators after they hit the markets. Investors can trial The Lavery Insight free for 14 days, and then continue for $259 per year or $29 per month.

About Jack Lavery:
Jack Lavery's tenure at Merrill Lynch included four years as Global Chief Economist; twelve years as Senior Vice President & Director of Global Securities, Research and Economics Group; and three years as the head of its Global Equities Business. He also created and orchestrated Merrill Lynch's Public Policy Research Group. Since 2001, Lavery has been the CEO and Chief Economist for the Lavery Consulting Group, L.L.C., and has provided his economic acumen to Minyanville clients since March 2009.

About Minyanville Media:
Minyanville Media is an Emmy Award-winning financial media company that creates branded content to entertain and educate people about the world of finance. Empowering individuals to become better advocates of their financial well being, Minyanville uses a combination of high-level market, business and investment analysis and entertaining style to educate a wide audience of investors, from the active trader to families with kids. The company's signature characters Hoofy the Bull and Boo the Bear of "Hoofy and Boo's News and Views," the world's only animated business news program, helped Minyanville bring home the 2008 Emmy for Business and Financial Reporting.

Minyanville reaches its audiences through Minyanville.com, MinyanLand (a virtual financial community for kids), subscription-based products and content distribution deals with Yahoo!, Marketwatch, T.D. Ameritrade, Bloomberg, Kaboose, AOL, Google, YouTube and others.

For more information, please visit Minyanville at http://www.minyanville.com.


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Genesa Garbarino
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