Actuarial Report Shows 21st Services’ Actual-to-Expected Ratio Is the Most Accurate Yet Reported in the Industry at 98.1%

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21st Services, a leading provider of life expectancy evaluations to the life settlements industry, has announced that its latest independent actuarial report shows the actual-to-expected ratio on its LE evaluations is 98.1%. The ratio reflects the reliability of the company's life expectancy predictions.

21st Services, a leading provider of life expectancy evaluations to the life settlements industry, has announced the results of its latest report by an independent actuarial firm on the reliability of its life expectancy predictions. The report shows that 21st Services’ actual-to-expected (A-to-E) ratio is 98.1%.

“The actual-to-expected ratio reflects the accuracy of a life expectancy providers’ predictions,” said 21st Services’ CEO Jack Kettler. “This is the most accurate actual-to-expected ratio we are aware of for any life expectancy provider.”

Kettler pointed out that the outside actuarial firm’s study covers lives 21st has evaluated since 2001, not just recent ones. “The A-to-E ratio reflects the company’s long-standing commitment to careful underwriting and the value of our analytical system,” Kettler said. “Our only goal is to produce the most accurate life expectancy evaluations possible.”

21st Services’ Chief Actuary Vincent Granieri said, “Our strong A-to-E ratio validates our 2008 decision to update our mortality tables. Further, we strongly believe that A-to-E analyses are most appropriate and informative when they are based on each life expectancy provider’s proprietary mortality tables as only those tables are calibrated to each company’s unique underwriting system.”

Major expansion of mortality data

Granieri said that 21st Services’ mortality tables are based on statistical studies of the early duration experience of the company’s 80,000-life database and a modified version of the Society of Actuaries’ Valuation Basic Tables. Pertinent life insurance industry mortality data is factored in as well.

The data coming in from the 15-million-life mortality study 21st Services commissioned in 2008 also appear to be contributing to the reliability of 21st Services’ mortality table and to the strong A-to-E results.

“We’re tapping into whatever appropriate sources of senior mortality data we have available to us,” Granieri said. “When our studies are complete, we will have far more mortality data than the whole life settlement industry combined has now. We are committed to building the strongest data foundation in the industry.”

The actual-to-expected report is based on studies conducted by a major European actuarial firm. As a further check, a US-based firm validated the methodology employed in the calculations. They analyzed 21st Services’ mortality experience from January 1, 2001, through December 31, 2008, with mortality results as of March 31, 2009.

The full actual-to-expected report includes the A-to-E ratio for each block of cases the company has underwritten since 2001. It also tracks the ratios at various stages in an aggregated mortality curve.

The report also discloses the assumptions used for IBNR – Incurred But Not Reported deaths. IBNR percentages are used to compensate for the time lag in Social Security death reports and inaccuracies in the Social Security database. The IBNR assumption was 11% in year one, 9% in year two and 7% thereafter.

"21st Services believes that no single A-to-E statistic can properly capture the performance of LE providers,” said Granieri. “Our goal is to deliver excellent A-to-E results along many dimensions: age, gender, smoker status and duration.”

Granieri said, "It is important to us to be able to render a picture of our actual-to-expected performance that is as consistent as possible, but our chief aim is to provide life expectancy estimates that are as reliable as possible, given the information and tools that we have at any given point.”

The full actual-to-expected report will be posted on 21st Services’ website, http://www.21stservices.com. Kettler said, “At 21st Services, we try to be as transparent as possible. That’s why we publish our A-to-E numbers and background information on how they are derived.”

For more information about the report, 21st Services’ mortality tables or the 15-million senior lives study, contact Vincent Granieri at vgranieri(at)21stservices(dot)com. Or visit the company’s website, http://www.21stservices.com.

About 21st Services

21st Services provides longevity estimates that are used to help funders value life insurance policies in life settlement transactions and to support financial planning decisions. 21st Services also offers post-purchase portfolio management services for the life settlement market. The company’s headquarters are in Minneapolis, MN.

For more information about 21st Services, go to http://www.21stservices.com.

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