Alterian SM2 Pre-Election Predictions More Accurate than Pundits

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Alterian’s SM2 analysis of social media conversations leading up to the 2010 midterm elections accurately predicted winners in seven out of the eight tracked races, including upset win by Nevada’s Harry Reid.

The accurate Midterm Election predictions based on our SM2 results is a testament to the value of listening to what consumers say via social media platforms

Alterian (LSE: ALN), the leader in customer engagement technology and solutions, today announced its success in predicting 2010 Midterm Election winners based on a social media study conducted from mid-September through Election Day. Alterian used its social media monitoring tool, SM2, to track online topic conversations surrounding 16 high-profile Senator and Gubernatorial races, eight of which included head-to-head comparisons with predicted winners.

Alterian’s SM2 analysis of the election correctly predicted the following election winners: Barbara Boxer in California, Chris Coons in Delaware, Rand Paul in Kentucky, Harry Reid in Nevada, Andrew Cuomo in New York, Rick Scott in Florida, and Deval Patrick in Massachusetts.

By analyzing volume of online conversations, share of voice per candidate and consumer sentiment, Alterian was able to predict an election winner based on their favorability rating. Favorability was calculated by combining positive and neutral social media mentions of each candidate, and then dividing that number by a candidate’s total number of mentions across social media platforms.

The only race where “social media favorability” failed to indicate an election winner was in Texas, where Rick Perry beat out Bill White for the Governor seat. Notably, Perry made up a larger percentage of online conversations (16 percent more than White) although a large portion of the sentiment surrounding those mentions was negative.

“The accurate Midterm Election predictions based on our SM2 results is a testament to the value of listening to what consumers say via social media platforms,” said David Eldridge, CEO of Alterian. “In this case, social media proved to be a strong indicator of an important milestone in American politics – something typically tracked through mathematical studies or research polls. Monitoring and analyzing conversations online provides valuable insight, enabling organizations to make predictions for future behavior such as we were able to for this election.”

About SM2 Midterm Election Research
Alterian’s SM2 social media monitoring tool tracks online conversations and sentiment across a vast number of social media and online channels. SM2 is capable of monitoring conversations from 24 different languages, with dictionaries for sentiment analysis of 18 of those languages.

This particular study was conducted from September 18 through the 2010 Midterm Election on November 2. High-profile races in the following states were tracked: Illinois, California, Florida, Delaware, Connecticut, Kentucky, Louisiana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Massachusetts, Texas and New York, with one-on-one comparisons of social media conversations surrounding candidates in select states.

Candidates’ names were entered into SM2 as separate searches within categories of state, type of race (Senate or Governor) and party affiliation, in which social media conversations were filtered based on topic and sentiment.

About Alterian
Alterian (LSE: ALN) enables organizations to create relevant, effective and engaging experiences with their customers and prospects through social, digital, and traditional marketing channels. Alterian’s Customer Engagement solutions are focused in four main areas: Social Media, Web Content Management, Email, and Campaign Management & Analytics.

Alterian technology is utilized either to address a specific marketing challenge or as part of an integrated marketing platform, with analytics and customer engagement with the individual at the heart of everything. Working alongside a rich ecosystem of partners, Alterian delivers its software as a service or on premise. For more information about Alterian visit or the Alterian blog at


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