Weather Services International Affirms Forecast: Another Cold Winter for UK & Western Europe, Especially Early, But Less Severe than Last Year

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Persistent North Atlantic Oscillation Tempers Impacts of Strong La Nina Event, Suggesting Lower-than-Normal Temperatures

WSI (Weather Services International) expects temperatures for the approaching period (December-February) to average higher than normal in the Nordic regions and the eastern half of the mainland and lower than normal in the UK and western Europe.

“As we head into the winter season, most of our important climate indicators are at or near record levels. A strong La Nina event is developing in the tropical Pacific with very cold ocean temperatures, while North Atlantic Ocean temperatures are as warm as they’ve been in the last 60 years. Further, and most importantly, the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has been unusually strong and persistent for much of the last 3 years, suggesting a return to weather patterns more like those in the 1950s and 1960s,” said WSI Chief Meteorologist, Dr. Todd Crawford. “While recent La Nina events have been associated with rather mild winters, they have not been accompanied by the negative NAO pattern. All of the La Nina events in the 1950s and 1960s were accompanied by the negative NAO pattern, and these were generally cold winters across parts of Europe. Based on all of the available evidence, we expect another winter with below-normal temperatures across the UK and the western half of the mainland, although not nearly as severe as last winter. Further, we expect the coldest weather to be in December, with the potential for a very mild spell sometime in January or February if the negative NAO pattern ever relaxes.”

In December, WSI predicts regional temperature anomalies as follows:
Nordic Region – Colder than normal-western half; warmer than normal-east
UK – Colder than normal
Northern Mainland – Colder than normal, except for eastern sections
Southern Mainland – Colder than normal, except for eastern sections

In January, WSI sees the monthly breakdown as:
Nordic Region – Colder than normal, except extreme southern areas
UK – Warmer than normal
Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal
Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except France/Iberia

In February, WSI forecasts:
Nordic Region– Warmer than normal
UK – Warmer than normal
Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal
Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except France/Iberia

WSI, providing customized weather information to energy traders, will issue its next seasonal outlook for the January-March period on 20 December.

About Weather Services International
Weather Services International is the world's leading provider of weather-driven business solutions for professionals in the energy, aviation and media markets, as well as multiple federal and state government agencies. WSI is a member of The Weather Channel Companies and is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts with offices in Birmingham, England. The Weather Channel Companies are owned by a consortium made up of NBC Universal and the private equity firms The Blackstone Group and Bain Capital. More information about WSI can be found at

Linda Maynard    
Weather Services International     

Editorial Contact:
Barbara Rudolph    
Rudolph Communications, LLC

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Linda Maynard

Barbara Rudolph
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