Price Volatility Prevails in Uranium Spot Market--TradeTech Month-End Uranium Price Settles at US$58.50

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TradeTech’s Daily Uranium Spot Price fell more than 20 percent to US$53.00 per pound U3O8 in the days following the natural disasters that left a Japanese nuclear plant battling numerous reactor problems. On March 31, however, the spot price rebounded to $58.50 per pound U3O8, as the uranium market showed signs of stabilizing. The company's two-year uranium price forecast, the basis of which is its proprietary econometric model the Dynamic Pricing Model, examines how long-term demand fundamentals are potentially impacted and takes the view that delays to nuclear build programs are more likely than cancellations.

“Neither buyers or sellers are exhibiting a strong willingness to move from their respective positions as both sides struggle to gain clarity about the potential short- and long-term impacts of the events in Japan,” TradeTech noted in its March 31 report.

TradeTech’s uranium spot price (1) responded to greater volatility in March, as the market followed events occurring at a Japanese nuclear plant, which was seriously damaged by the March 11 Tohoku earthquake and subsequent tsunami.

TradeTech’s Daily Uranium Spot Price fell more than 20 percent in the days following the natural disasters that left the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear station battling numerous reactor problems and settled at US$53.00 per pound uranium oxide (U3O8) on March 18. The spot uranium market was exceptionally active early in March as anxious sellers seeking to unload material entered the market following the events at the Japanese nuclear facility. A record-setting 45 transactions were concluded in March, which involved more than 6.8 million pounds U3O8. By month end, however, the spot market showed signs of stabilizing with TradeTech’s month-end spot price, known as the Exchange Value, rebounding to $58.50 per pound U3O8.

“Neither buyers or sellers are exhibiting a strong willingness to move from their respective positions as both sides struggle to gain clarity about the potential short- and long-term impacts of the events in Japan,” TradeTech noted in its March 31 Nuclear Market Review. “Considering the severity of the accident and the global reaction, a period of uncertainty and resulting price volatility can be expected to prevail,” said TradeTech President Treva E. Klingbiel.

In the aftermath of the Fukushima incident TradeTech has reissued its two-year uranium price forecast, the basis of which is its proprietary econometric model the Dynamic Pricing Model. The report, which examines how long-term demand fundamentals are potentially impacted, takes the view that delays to nuclear build programs are more likely than cancellations. Still, with an estimated 200 million pounds U3O8 removed from the uranium demand balance over the 2011-2025 time frame, TradeTech projects that competition within the mining industry is expected to intensify and that in the near-term, a divergence between perception-driven spot prices and more robust long-term prices could lead to a production race in the junior mining sector.

(1) TradeTech’s Daily Uranium Spot Price Indicator is published to paid subscribers Monday through Friday, with the exception of US Federal government holidays. The Exchange Value is published on the last day of each month. Spot price indicators are expressed in US dollars and are based on data from recently completed transactions and/or pending transactions, and firm bids to buy and firm offers to sell uranium concentrates on the spot uranium market.

About TradeTech
TradeTech publishes the "Nuclear Market Review" (NMR) each Friday evening, which reports the Weekly Uranium Spot Price Indicator, uranium trading activity, industry news, and market data. The monthly edition of the NMR, published on the last day of each month, includes TradeTech Market Values (Exchange Value, UF6 Value, Loan Rate, Conversion Value, SWU Value, and Transaction Value) and Mid- and Long-Term Price Indicators, as well as analysis related to these price determinations, supply/demand information, and industry news. TradeTech also publishes "The Nuclear Review," a monthly trade publication dedicated to the international uranium and nuclear energy industry.

TradeTech, and its predecessor companies–NUEXCO Information Services, CONCORD Information Services, and CONCORD Trading Company–has supported the uranium and nuclear fuel cycle industry for more than 40 years, and is widely recognized for its expertise in trading activities and its comprehensive knowledge of the technical, economic, and political factors affecting this industry. TradeTech provides expert market consulting, participates in the buying and selling of uranium products and services, and maintains an extensive information database on these industries.

For general and media inquiries contact:
TradeTech
Denver Tech Center
7887 E. Belleview Avenue
Suite 888
Englewood, CO 80111
Phone: 303.573.3530
Fax: 303.573.3531

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Treva Klingbiel
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