Bad Timing: Consumers Tighten Grip on Wallets as Holidays Approach, According to September ForecastIQ® Analysis

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The September ForecastIQ® same store sales outlook is down from August, indicating that consumers are tightening their grip on their wallets as the December holidays approach. Value-oriented and luxury retailer forecasts are the most promising, but predictions for middle market retailers aren’t as bright.

Value-oriented, luxury retailer forecasts are the most promising, but predictions for middle market retailers aren't as bright.

It doesn’t appear that the holiday shopping season is starting off strong, according to the September ForecastIQ® (a service from Prosper Technologies™), which projects same store sales growth/decline through November. Just when everyone thinks consumers would be gearing up, it seems that they are tightening their purse strings causing overall predictions to be down from last month. Lack of faith in the economy is likely a factor in this retrenchment; consumer confidence is at 22.7%, the lowest September reading in the survey’s ten year history.

Of the 22 retailers tracked, eight are projected to almost certainly see an increase in same store sales over last year, while five are likely to experience an increase. On the other hand, comparable sales are likely to decline for six retailers and almost certain for three. Forecasts for value-oriented and luxury retailers are promising, but predictions for middle market retailers are not as bright. It looks like this season (similar to last) consumers intend to be budget-focused and sale-oriented.

BJ’s, Costco and Ross are almost certain to see an increase while Fred’s and TJX are likely. Neiman Marcus and Nordstrom’s sales are almost certain to increase and Saks is likely. Banana Republic and Old Navy are forecasted likely decline over last year and Gap is predicted almost certain decline.

A partial list of retailers covered in the ForecastIQ® and expectations for same-store sales year-over-year growth/decline through November follows:

Almost certain to see increase:
BJ’s
Buckle
Costco
Neiman Marcus
Nordstrom
Ross
Victoria’s Secret
Wet Seal

Likely to see increase:            
Children’s Place
Dillard’s
Fred’s
Saks
TJX

Likely to see decline:    
Banana Republic
Bon-Ton
JC Penney
Old Navy

Almost certain to see decrease:
Gap
Stage

For complete list of retailers and a complimentary 30-day trial: http://www.forecastiq.com

About ForecastIQ®
The ForecastIQ® retail model was developed by Prosper® in cooperation with Dr. Greg Allenby. The forecasts of same-store sales are based on consumer purchase intentions and behavior derived from historical same-store sales data of 22 publicly traded retailers and consensus estimates combined with the monthly Consumer Survey from BIGinsight™. The results provide a forecast of consumer spending 75 days in advance. Same-store sales forecasts are provided by percent growth over the next 45 and 75 day periods. Short term forecasts are available by enhanced consensus estimates.

About Prosper Technologies™
Prosper Technologies™ develops software applications that provide consumer-centric analytics to marketers/retailers for better forecasting consumer demand, allocating marketing dollars, tracking consumer behaviors and understanding cross-shopping patterns.

Contact:
Phil Rist
614-846-0146

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