Youth, Luxury and Value Retailers Bolster Overall Same Store Sales Predictions, According to October ForecastIQ® Analysis

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The October ForecastIQ® same store sales outlook is improved from September, indicating that consumers may be getting in the holiday spending spirit. Youth, value-oriented and luxury retailer forecasts are the most promising.

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Overall same store sales forecasts are up from last year.

Although consumer confidence is down, it seems the holiday shopping season is starting to pick up particularly for youth, luxury and value retailers, according to the October ForecastIQ® (a service from Prosper Technologies™), which projects same store sales growth/decline through December. Of the 21 retailers tracked, nine are projected to almost certainly see an increase in same store sales over last year, while five are likely to experience an increase. Three are predicted to remain flat and four are forecasted likely decline.

Compared to this time last year, forecasts have improved for half of the retailers tracked. Youth-oriented retailers such as Buckle, Old Navy and Wet Seal are in better position for a happy holiday than they were in the October 2010 forecast. The same is true for value-driven retailers Ross, TJX and Fred’s. Neiman Marcus and Nordstrom also appear better off than a year ago. Further, Costco, Saks and Victoria’s Secret maintained an “almost certain to see an increase” position, providing reason for optimism in the forecast. But retailers should remain cautious as consumers are likely to be shopping a variety of retailers for the best value this season.

Challenges remain, however, for JC Penney and Bon-Ton. It’s expected to be a promotion-heavy holiday season, and these retailers may need to entice shoppers with extra coupons to get traffic in their doors.

A partial list of retailers covered in the ForecastIQ® and expectations for same-store sales year-over-year growth/decline through December follows:

Almost certain to see increase (compared to October 2010 ForecastIQ™)
Buckle (Up)
Costco (Same)
Neiman Marcus (Up)
Nordstrom (Up)
Ross (Up)
Saks (Same)
TJX (Up)
Victoria’s Secret (Same)
Wet Seal (Up)

Likely to see increase:            
Children’s Place (Same)
Dillard’s (Up)
Fred’s (Up)

Banana Republic (Same)
JC Penney (Down)
Old Navy (Up)

Likely to see decrease:    
Bon-Ton (Down)
Gap (Same)
Stage (Same)

For complete list of retailers and a complimentary 30-day trial:

About ForecastIQ®
The ForecastIQ® retail model was developed by Prosper® in cooperation with Dr. Greg Allenby. The forecasts of same-store sales are based on consumer purchase intentions and behavior derived from historical same-store sales data of 21 publicly traded retailers and consensus estimates combined with the Monthly Consumer Survey from BIGinsight™. The results provide a forecast of consumer spending 75 days in advance. Same-store sales forecasts are provided by percent growth over the next 45 and 75 day periods. Short term forecasts are available by enhanced consensus estimates.

About Prosper Technologies™
Prosper Technologies™ develops software applications that provide consumer-centric analytics to marketers/retailers for better forecasting consumer demand, allocating marketing dollars, tracking consumer behaviors and understanding cross-shopping patterns.

Phil Rist


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