American Monetary Association Podcast Welcomes John Stapleford, Discussing Cautious Optimism for Today’s Economy

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Moody’s Senior Economist John Stapleford visits popular podcast, offering hopeful economic outlook

American Monetary Association

John Stapleford, senior economist for Moody’s, visited the American Monetary Association(AMA) podcast for its 29th episode. Stapleford and the show’s host discussed a number of key factors in the unstable U.S. economy—suggesting the economy may be in the midst of a slow turnaround, including prosperity in American employment, the plight of self-employed Americans and the country’s position now compared to the Great Depression.

Stapleford’s outlook was cautiously optimistic as he discussed the future of the United States saying the U.S. economy would hit its turning point toward recovery around the end of this year. The job market will continue to recede until next year, Stapleford said adding that “there are signs of some little shoots breaking up through the ground.”

Stapleford cautioned that it would be a very long time before the U.S. sees the kind of prosperity it saw in 2006. In addition, he qualified his statements by saying that all economic factors are based on sample data and that a confidence interval is built in. A long term view of the economy is important when forming an opinion as to where the economy is headed.

In referring to the plight of self-employed individuals nationwide, Stapleford said that “the portion of employed folds in the United States that are self-employed has actually been relatively stable over the last five years. It has shifted from agriculture to lots of other things into the services area.” In short, while the agriculture business has decreased, self-employed individuals are increasing in other sectors of American Industry.

The show’s host asked Stapleford to compare today’s economic climate with that of the Great Depression. “I find it very hard to believe that the data we have today is at all comparable to what they had back then,” said Stapleford. “Economic data was simply not recorded as exhaustively as it is now.”

Many employment factors were different, including married and unmarried women flooding the workforce. Married women in the labor force greatly increased starting in the 1970s and hit an all-time high a few years ago, added Stapleford. “If someone is unemployed, are they the primary wage earner in the household or the secondary wage earner?” Changing socioeconomic factors make it impossible to compare today’s economy to the economy of the Great Depression.

About American Monetary Association
The American Monetary Association is a non-profit venture funded by The Jason Hartman Foundation which is dedicated to educating people about the practical effects of monetary policy and government actions on inflation, deflation and freedom. Our goal is to help people prosper in the midst of uncertain economic times. For information, visit American Monetary Association online.


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