Complete Unemployment Overview and Data Chart Posted - Total Numbers Worse Than Federal Government's Touted Numbers

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Employment trends much less healthier than commonly reviewed numbers imply. Total number of employed U.S. workers still near cyclical low.

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The total number of people working in the United States as of the end of February is still under the number of employed workers in late 2008.

Extensive data mining and research by the analytical staff of the Rhino Report indicates the actual employment trends and scenario are far from significantly improved relative to cyclical lows reached in 2009.

James Brumley, chief analyst of the Rhino Report, has shared details of the true unemployment picture with the newsletter's subscribers. Select data from the report are being made public for non-subscribers. The key concerns are:

1. While the shrinking number of initial unemployment claims has been falling since the March of 2009 high of 647K to last month's 385K, the total number of people working in the United States as of the end of February is still under the number of employed workers in late 2008. A total of 147 million people were working in December of 2007, and only 139 million U.S. residents are employed now. That's fewer than were working in March of 2009.

2. While the number of regular ongoing unemployment claims has been falling since the early 2009 peak of 6.3 million, reaching 4.3 million as of last month, the government's reported figure doesn't include the 4.4 million unemployed currently receiving emergency benefits. It also excludes the estimated 3 million who stopped receiving any benefit, yet are still not employed.

A long-term chart of all this data can be viewed at:

Brumley adds that even though the unemployment trend is not getting measurably better in the least, it's not inherently a reason to avoid the stock market. In fact, corporations are almost earning as much money now as they were in late 2007. The stocks in the S&P 500 are projected to be earning at record levels by the end of 2011, and have already dramatically improved since lulls in late 2008 even though the number of employed people since than has fallen. The implication is that the market does not need strong employment to thrive, as companies have been able to squeeze more from the active workforce.

To learn more about this study, the portfolio's stocks, and the site's near-term and short-term outlook, go to the Rhino Report web site located at for more information.

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James Brumley
The Rhino Report

Source: The Rhino Report

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