Latest ForecastIQ® Analysis Shows Future Consumer Spending Plans Are Deteriorating

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ForecastIQ® combines historical same-store sales data of 23 publicly traded retailers and consensus estimates with BIGresearch® monthly Consumer Intentions and Actions® (CIA®) Survey data. The results provide a forecast of consumer spending 75 days in advance. In April, forecasts show a drop in consumers' future spending plans, reflecting their sodden outlook on the economy.

Number of Retailers Forecasted to See Increase/Decline Through June

With issues like rising gas prices, the threat of a government shut down and stubbornly high unemployment, it is no surprise that consumers’ confidence in the economy is declining. Future spending plans appear to follow suit.

The outlook for same-store sales growth declines from last month as consumers continue to pull back, according to the April ForecastIQ® (a service from Prosper Technologies, LLC). With issues like rising gas prices, the threat of a government shut down and stubbornly high unemployment, it is no surprise that consumers’ confidence in the economy is declining. Future spending plans appear to follow suit.

Of those tracked, significantly more retailers are almost certain to see decline over the next 75 days, compared to last month’s forecast. Fewer retailers are predicted to experience almost certain growth. (See Image)

Complimentary 30-day trial: http://www.forecastiq.com

Almost certain to see an increase in same-store sales are warehouse clubs BJ’s and Costco. Specialty retailer Victoria’s Secret is almost certain to see growth as well, while high-end retailers Neiman Marcus and Nordstrom are likely to see an increase. Discounters Ross and TJX share positive outlooks this month.

Department stores Dillard’s and JC Penney are likely to see decline while the outlook for Saks remains flat.

Banana Republic and Gap, along with Bon-Ton, Hot Topic and Stage are almost certain to experience declines in same-store sales through June.

A partial list of retailers covered in the ForecastIQ® and expectations for same-store sales year-over-year growth/decline through June is attached.

Complete list of retailers and a complimentary 30-day trial: http://www.forecastiq.com

About ForecastIQ®
The ForecastIQ® retail model was developed by Prosper® in cooperation with Dr. Greg Allenby. The forecasts of same-store sales are based on consumer purchase intentions and behavior derived from historical same-store sales data of 23 publicly traded retailers and consensus estimates combined with BIGresearch® monthly Consumer Intentions and Actions® (CIA®) Survey data. The results provide a forecast of consumer spending 75 days in advance. Same-store sales forecasts are provided by percent growth over the next 45 and 75 day periods. Short term forecasts are available by enhanced consensus estimates.

About Prosper Technologies™
Prosper Technologies™ develops software applications that provide consumer-centric analytics to marketers/retailers for better forecasting consumer demand, allocating marketing dollars, tracking consumer behaviors and understanding cross-shopping patterns.

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Phil Rist
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