WSI Expects a Cool Summer across US Great Lakes & Ohio Valley with Significant Heat Confined to Interior West

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Eastern US Coastal Cities Expected to be Slightly Warmer than 30-Year Normal

WSI US Weather Outlook June-August 2011

WSI US Weather Outlook June-August 2011

May has been a rather chilly month across most of the US so far, as the atmospheric pattern has changed to allow cooler weather to temporarily return to the southern US.

WSI (Weather Services International) expects the upcoming summer period (June-August) to average cooler than normal in the north-central states, Great Lakes, as well as the Ohio and Mississippi River valleys, with above-normal temperatures expected elsewhere, especially in the southwestern US. The WSI seasonal outlooks reference a standard 30-year normal (1971-2000).

“May has been a rather chilly month across most of the US so far, as the atmospheric pattern has changed to allow cooler weather to temporarily return to the southern US,” said WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford. “This change in the pattern towards increased high-latitude blocking, or a more amplified jet stream, will likely persist and evolve into June. Because of this, we expect the coolest part of summer (relative to normal) to be early, especially across the north-central and Great Lakes states. During the last half of summer, we think that the pattern will reverse with the potential for some significant heat to return to the northern US by August.”

In June, WSI predicts regional temperature anomalies as follows:
Northeast* – Warmer than normal, except for western NY/PA & VT
Southeast* – Warmer than normal
N Central*     – Cooler than normal
S Central*     – Warmer than normal
Northwest* – Cooler than normal
Southwest* – Warmer than normal

Paul Flemming, Director of Power and Gas at ESAI, said, “Warmer-than-normal temperatures in New England and along the Atlantic and Gulf Coast regions during June will provide a bullish underpinning for power prices. However, cooler-than-normal temperatures will prevail in most areas of New York and PJM moderating prices overall in those pools,” Flemming noted. “The cooler-than-normal temperatures in California and the Northwest, as well as ample hydro, will be bearish for power prices in those markets. Given the expected weather patterns and the return of most generation from maintenance, gas demand should be near normal for June.”

In July, WSI sees the monthly breakdown as:
Northeast     – Cooler than normal
Southeast     – Cooler than normal
N Central     – Warmer than normal
S Central     – Cooler than normal, except western TX
Northwest     – Cooler than normal coastal areas, warmer than normal inland
Southwest – Warmer than normal

“Cooler-than-normal temperatures in the key demand centers should result in lower-than-normal natural gas demand. The cooler-than-normal temperatures in the eastern regions will also result in lower power prices and less price volatility in the PJM, New York and New England control areas during July. Cooler temperatures will also translate into lower probabilities of heat events during July,” added Flemming.

In August, WSI forecasts:
Northeast     – Warmer than normal
Southeast     – Warmer than normal, except Mississippi/Ohio River valleys
N Central     – Warmer than normal
S Central     – Warmer than normal
Northwest     – Warmer than normal
Southwest – Warmer than normal

Flemming noted further that “Much warmer-than-normal temperatures in the key eastern and western markets will result in greater natural gas demand to meet power sector demand for cooling. The warmer outlook increases the chances of heat events in August that could result in price spikes in the Northeast and California markets.”

WSI, which provides customized weather information to energy traders, will issue its next seasonal outlook on June 21.

*To view the map defining WSI’s US regions, click here.

About WSI
WSI (Weather Services International) is the world's leading provider of weather-driven business solutions for professionals in the energy, aviation, and media markets, and multiple federal and state government agencies. WSI is a member of The Weather Channel Companies and is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts with offices in Birmingham, England. The Weather Channel Companies are owned by a consortium made up of NBC Universal and the private equity firms The Blackstone Group and Bain Capital. More information about WSI can be found at http://www.wsi.com.

About ESAI
Since its inception in 1984, Energy Security Analysis Inc. (ESAI) has been dedicated to monitoring, analyzing, and synthesizing information about world-wide energy markets. Tapping the talents of its senior-level staff, ESAI provides clients with unparalleled insight into where the markets have been and where they are headed. ESAI provides ongoing systematic analysis of energy prices in the oil, natural gas, and energy markets. For more information on ESAI services, see http://www.esai.com.

Contacts:
Linda Maynard    
WSI
(978) 983-6715    
lmaynard(at)wsi(dot)com

Tommy Sutro
Energy Security Analysis, Inc.
(781) 245-2036
tsutro(at)esai(dot)com

Editorial Contact:
Barbara Rudolph    
Rudolph Communications, LLC
(781) 229-1811
bjr(at)rudolphcommunications(dot)com

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