GWO Predicts 3 to 5 Hurricanes to Impact U.S. Coast in 2011, With One or Two Major Hurricanes Possible

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Based primarily on analysis of the Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) for climate cycles, GWO predicts the 2011 hurricane season to be about as active as last year, but much more dangerous. This is due to the GWO PFM cycles showing many coastal zones being vulnerable to hurricane and tropical storm landfalls this year (http://www.globalweathercycles.com). In addition, in several zones the PFM cycles, which are unique for each zone, indicate moderate to high risks for one or two major hurricanes (Category 3 to 5) during the 2011 season.

Based primarily on analysis of the Primary Forcing Mechanism (PFM) for climate cycles, GWO predicts the 2011 hurricane season to be about as active as last year, but much more dangerous. This is due to the GWO PFM cycles showing many coastal zones being vulnerable to hurricane and tropical storm landfalls this year (http://www.globalweathercycles.com). In addition, in several zones the PFM cycles, which are unique for each zone, indicate moderate to high risks for one or two major hurricanes (Category 3 to 5) during the 2011 season.

Back in the active 2004 season there were 6 hurricanes that hit coastal areas, and in 2005, 7 tropical cyclones made landfall on the U. S. coast. Global Weather Oscillations, Inc (GWO) expects the 2011 season to be similar to the 2004 and 2005 seasons with respect to the amount of the U.S. Coast experiencing hurricane conditions, but not necessarily the same locations as 2004.

GWO's forecast for the 2011 season, predicts a high risk of 3 hurricanes impacting the U.S. coastline and a potential risk of up to 5 hurricanes. GWO also predicts a high risk of one major hurricane making landfall, and a moderate risk that 2 major hurricanes will make landfall.

This will make the 2011 hurricane season about as active as last year, but much different from 2010 which produced a total of 19 named storms and 2 tropical depressions. In 2010 there were 12 hurricanes and 7 tropical storms, the most named storms since the 2005 season. The 12 hurricanes in 2010 tied with 1969 for the 2nd highest total on record. However, there were no hurricanes that made landfall on the U.S. coastline during the 2010 season– a very unusual statistic given the level of activity. In the last 110 years when there were 10 or more hurricanes, at least two hurricanes made landfall on the U.S. coast.

In September and December of 2010, GWO issued the 2011 hurricane predictions for 11 forecast zones to GWO clients. The complete zone forecasts, available only to GWO’s clients, pinpoint exactly what areas of the U.S. coast will be at high risk for hurricane and tropical storm conditions in 2011, with accurate zone outlooks going out 3 additional years. Instead of emphasizing a predicted number of named storms in the Atlantic Basin, GWO forecasts where the storms are likely to be tracking, and the risk probability for hurricane conditions for specific zones. During the 5 years since 2006, GWO has a near 90% forecast accuracy for pinpointing tropical cyclone active areas on or near the U.S. Coastlines. More information is available on GWO's web site http://www.globalweathercycles.com.

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David Dilley
Global Weather Oscillations Inc.
(352) 732-8170
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