Two-Month Mortgage Rate Forecast from HSH.com

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HSH.com’s mortgage rate forecast predicts a slight rise near the end of the coming nine weeks. The forecast is based on indicators of economic growth and inflation as well as other factors including recent natural disasters and oil and commodity prices.

The next few weeks will probably bring more of an accumulation of poor economic data, but the four or five weeks after that may bring new glimmers of economic life.

HSH.com releases its latest Two-Month Forecast for mortgage rates today amid disagreement between industry experts about where rates are heading. HSH.com predicts a slight rise is ahead for mortgage rates within the next two months.

The HSH.com prediction of higher mortgage rates comes in an environment of considerable uncertainty about the future direction of interest rates. For instance, the importance of the end of the Federal Reserve's second round of quantitative easing ("QE2") is being debated among many experts in the investment community. Whereas members of Vanguard's research team doubt the overall impact of QE2's end on interest rates, others such as PIMCO’s Bill Gross, one of the foremost mavens of the bond market, have gone on record saying that the end of QE2 will be instrumental in moving interest rates higher.

HSH.com’s forecast is based on assumptions about the direction of numerous factors such as economic growth and inflation, U.S. employment numbers, the supply of Treasuries, the effect of recent natural disasters and the price of oil and commodities over the coming weeks.

“The next few weeks will probably bring more of an accumulation of poor economic data, but the four or five weeks after that may bring new glimmers of economic life,” said Keith Gumbinger, vice president of HSH.com.

HSH.com predicts that over the next 2 months, mortgage rates will range between 4.50 and 4.90 percent for conforming 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and between 3.30 and 3.75 percent for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs).

HSH.com has been issuing its Two-Month Mortgage Rate Forecast for almost ten years. Forecasts dating back to 2004 are available on HSH.com.

The current Two-Month Forecast for mortgage rates is accompanied by discussion of present and expected market conditions and includes a recap of the previous forecast. The forecast can be found at http://www.hsh.com/2month4cast.html.

About HSH.com
HSH.com has tracked the nation's mortgage market for homebuyers, homeowners and industry participants since 1979. HSH.com's deep and broad surveys of mortgage rates and terms for first mortgages, home equity loans, home equity lines of credit and other consumer loans have been conducted on a weekly basis for as long as 30 years, and the company has long been an authoritative source for current loan pricing information.

Press Contact:
Jessica Cultra
479-739-2690
Jcultra(at)hsh(dot)com

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