New Federal Birth Numbers Confirm Industry Report

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The birth rate model developed by Demographic Intelligence LLC for its April report accurately predicted (99.8%) 2010 U.S. births in advance of the CDC release of the report "Recent Trends in Births and Fertility Rates Through 2010."

The U.S Fertility Forecast 2011-2012

Congratulations! Rarely does any forecast reach the amazing accuracy level of 99.8% as DI just accomplished.

New Federal Birth Numbers Confirm Industry Report

U.S. Now Poised for Rise in Births

New federal estimates of U.S. births in 2010 released yesterday are consistent with earlier projections from The U.S. Fertility ForecastTM, which had earlier projected that U.S. births would fall to 4.015 million births in 2010. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention preliminary figures released today indicate that 4.007 million babies were born in 2010.

This means that the April edition of the U.S. Fertility ForecastTM, sponsored by Demographic Intelligence (DI), was 99.8% accurate in its projections for 2010 births. In good news for the juvenile products industry, the most recent edition of the U.S. Fertility ForecastTM also predicted that U.S. births bottomed out in 2010 and are now poised to rise.

“We are pleased that our report did such a good job of projecting the 2010 drop in fertility,” said Bradford Wilcox, Ph.D., president of Demographic Intelligence. “But the juvenile products industry should take some comfort from our April projections for 2011 and 2012, which suggested that the U.S. will see an uptick in births in the next few years, provided the recovery strengthens.”

Specifically:

  •     U.S. births fell more than 7 percent from 4.324 million births in 2007 to 4.007 million births in 2010.
  •     Given changes in the last year in the economy and the demographic composition of the population, Wilcox predicts that U.S. births bottomed out in 2010 and are now likely to rise. “The juvenile products industry has faced a tough market over the last few years, since many Americans cut back on childbearing in the wake of the Great Recession,” said Wilcox. “But we think that births will rise in 2011 and again in 2012, if the recovery strengthens. Our team of demographers are closely tracking economic trends for our July update of the fertility forecast.”
  •     Demographic Intelligence has developed a model for projecting U.S. birth trends that has proved about 98 percent accurate in providing estimates for U.S. births in 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010. Wilcox is confident that DI estimates will prove similarly accurate moving forward.

“This new report fills a critical gap for executives, investors, and analysts working in the juvenile products industry,” noted Wilcox. “After all, the U.S. Census Bureau birth projections are not calibrated to changes in the economy and culture, and academic research doesn’t typically provide fine-grained projections of U.S. births on a short- or medium-term basis. Thus, Demographic Intelligence gives companies a clear sense of the demographic road ahead.”

Bruce Crain, President and Chief Executive Officer of Kid Brands, Inc., commented, “We believe that the Demographic Intelligence survey provides valuable insights into both the causes of the recent decline and the anticipated rebound in U.S. births.  The forecast corroborates our belief that an improvement in macroeconomic conditions could lead to a more favorable U.S. marketplace over the next few years.  We are therefore encouraged by the outlook for U.S. births, as pregnancy intentions and births are a core driver of consumer sales for the infant and juvenile industry and Kid Brands’ products specifically. Given our leadership position in the industry and our strategic growth initiatives to expand into new product categories and channels, we believe we are well-positioned to take advantage of any demographic upswing.”

The new report is also drawing support from the Juvenile Products Manufacturers Association (JPMA). “Reports such as The U.S. Fertility Forecast provide tremendous value to JPMA members allowing them to successfully meet the demands of parents nationwide,” commented Jason Macari, Chairman of JPMA.

Drawing on an extensive analysis of demographic, economic, and cultural trends, the next edition of The U.S. Fertility ForecastTM will provide detailed projections of birth trends in 2011, 2012, and 2013. Specifically, the report will estimate overall U.S. births, first births, and births by race, ethnicity, WIC status, and education for these three years. The report will also provide annual estimates of overall U.S. births through 2015.

About Demographic Intelligence LLC

Demographic Intelligence (DI) provides demographic information, analysis, and consulting to companies and investors in the juvenile products industry. DI produces The U.S. Fertility ForecastTM on a quarterly basis, and also consults with companies interesting in exploring U.S. demographic trends in more detail. Dr. Wilcox is also a professor of sociology and the Director of the National Marriage Project at the University of Virginia, where he studies trends in marriage and parenthood in the U.S. Demographic Intelligence is advised in its work by three leading demographers: Princeton economist Alicia Adsera, University of Pennsylvania demographer Hans-Peter Kohler, and Duke University demographer Philip Morgan.

CONTACT:
Steven Morales
Chief Operating Officer
Demographic Intelligence
(434) 286-2275
Steve(at)USbirthrate(dot)com
http://www.demographicintel.com

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