Cautious Consumers Impact Same Store Sales Outlook, According to Latest ForecastIQ® Analysis

Share Article

The ForecastIQ® retail model was developed by Prosper® in cooperation with Dr. Greg Allenby. The forecasts of same-store sales are based on consumer purchase intentions and behavior derived from historical same-store sales data of 23 publicly traded retailers and consensus estimates combined with BIGresearch® monthly Consumer Intentions and Actions® (CIA®) Survey data. The results provide a forecast of consumer spending 75 days in advance. The June forecast, projecting same store sales through August, shows that compared to last month's forecast, more fashion retailers are likely to see a decline in sales year over year.

With Back to School around the corner, a cautious consumer is not welcome news for retailers.

A lackluster consumer confidence reading coupled with consumer plans to decrease overall spending and add to overall savings appears to be affecting the outlook for retail sales. According to a recent analysis of ForecastIQ® (a service from Prosper Technologies™), same store sales projections are meandering down from last month’s forecast. And with Back to School around the corner, a cautious consumer is not welcome news for retailers.

Projections for a group of ten fashion retailers (specialty and high-end department stores) who report monthly same store sales indicate that growth isn’t as likely through August compared to last month’s analysis. The good news is that six of the ten retailers are likely/almost certain to experience growth in same store sales. The bad news is that five are less likely to grow than they were last month, which may indicate that consumers are now reacting to inflation by spending less overall.

Back to school players such as Victoria's Secret and Wet Seal dropped from almost certain to see an increase to likely to see an increase. Old Navy’s outlook changed to flat and Hot Topic dropped all the way to likely to experience decline (both previously almost certain to see an increase).

Saks’s projection is the only one of the group to move up from last month, joining other high-end department stores Neiman Marcus and Nordstrom.

Jun-11
(Forecast through August)
Almost certain to see increase:
Buckle
Neiman Marcus
Nordstrom
Saks

Likely to see increase:
Victoria’s Secret
Wet Seal

Flat:
Old Navy

Likely to see decline:
Banana Republic
Gap
Hot Topic

May-11
(Forecast through July)
Almost certain to see increase:
Buckle
Hot Topic
Neiman Marcus
Nordstrom
Old Navy
Victoria’s Secret
Wet Seal

Likely to see increase:        
Banana Republic
Saks

Likely to see decline:    
Gap

Complimentary 30-day trial: http://www.forecastiq.com

The forecasts for fashion retailers aren’t the only ones to be affected by current consumer mindset. Warehouse clubs BJ’s and Costco remain almost certain to see growth through August, along with discounters Ross and TJX.

However, department stores Dillard’s and JC Penney are likely to see a decrease in same-store sales, down from last month's forecast.

About Prosper Technologies™
Prosper Technologies™ develops software applications that provide consumer-centric analytics to marketers/retailers for better forecasting consumer demand, allocating marketing dollars, tracking consumer behaviors and understanding cross-shopping patterns.

###

Share article on social media or email:

View article via:

Pdf Print

Contact Author

Visit website