UPI/CVoter Poll: All 50 States and National Vote Bang on Target

An analysis of the 28 national polls tracking voter sentiment in the 2012 presidential election showed UPI/CVoter's poll was among the most accurate in projecting the final electoral college and national popular vote results.

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WASHINGTON (UPI) –

(PRWEB) November 08, 2012 -- The final results of Tuesday’s presidential election showed that projections made by the UPI/CVoter tracking turned out to be correct for all fifty states, including the 14 states identified as battlegrounds.

A comparison of 28 national polls by Fordham University political scientist Costas Panagopoulous found UPI/CVoter’s final pre-election poll of the national poll to be among the most accurate, showing very minimal bias, and the most accurate in predicting the vote share in the battlegrounds.

The final UPI/CVoter projection released before voting began accurately predicted President Barack Obama would get 303 Electoral College votes and his Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, 206, C-Voter pollster Yashwant Deshmukh said.

The final UPI/C-Voter projection correctly anticipated that Romney would take only Indiana and North Carolina among the eight most furiously contested battleground states, leaving him without a probably path to claim the White House as the 45th president. The polling accurately forecast Obama would win the other bellwether states of Virginia, New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

The poll had also accurately noted before the ballot that the two candidates would be in a tight race in Florida and it would turn out to be too close to call.

The UPI/C-Voter rollover opinion poll, launched in early August, had found Obama maintaining a lead ahead of Romney until the Republican nominee battered the president in their first debate in Denver, Colorado, on October 3. The UPI/CVoter polling was among the first national polls to report a swing towards Romney in the immediate aftermath, a shift that prompted alarm among Obama supporters and led to the president showing up vigorously in the second and the third debates.

The tracking poll was also the first to report a “Sandy Bump” for the president, reflecting positive sentiment for President Obama’s handling of the hurricane and disaster relief in the final days of the campaign.

On Tuesday, just hours before the election, the UPI/CVoter poll predicted Obama would receive 49 percent and Romney 48 percent of the overall vote share, just 1 point shy and matching the eventual result, respectively. In Colorado—where Obama won—and North and South Carolina—which Romney claimed, UPI/CVoter correctly predicted the vote. In remaining 11 battleground states; including Ohio, New Hampshire, Iowa, Pennsylvania and Virginia—each of Obama won—the UPI/CVoter poll accurately predicted the exact vote share difference between the two candidates within a margin of 1 percent.


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