Advises “Sleep In” on Black Friday; Early This Week and Mid-December Offer Best Prices for Holiday Gifts

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Data from over the last two years reveals that Black Friday is not the best time to purchase most items. Nine of the 11 major consumer product categories averaged a lower price leading up to Black Friday, the week after Black Friday or the week before the Christmas holiday. Overall, shoppers save a substantial amount of money on popular products by skipping Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

Decide found that before Black Friday is the best time to buy espresso machines, vacuums, cameras, and TVs, hot toys, luxury/ high quality staple items.

On Black Friday, consumers will see plenty of lesser known and lower quality TVs offered as doorbusters, but few major brands go on sale. If a major brand is on sale, shoppers can count on extremely limited quantity.

Items to Avoid on Black Friday-- Buy Now For the Best Price

  •     Cameras: From point-and-shoots to more sophisticated models for professional photographers, the best time to buy is before Black Friday.
  •     Expected savings: 5 percent, an average of $27.61.
  •     Espresso machines: Buy before the holiday season.
  •     Expected savings: 6 percent, $14.
  •     Vacuums: Best time to buy: the week before Black Friday.
  •     Expected savings: 14 percent or $23.
  •     TVs: To get the lowest price on a TV, the best time to buy is the week leading up to Black Friday.
  •     Expected savings: 8 percent, an average of $75.
  •     Hot toys: Buy as early as possible. For toys that might be hot this season, waiting until Black Friday or the height of the December holiday season can run the risk of missing out of the product if it sells out. If it is still in stock, it can also be much more expensive (no longer offered a discount), sometimes up to 200 percent of its price, if only a few sellers are offering the product.
  •     Example: Furby
  •     Luxury and Staple Items: Buy as early as possible before the holiday rush. Prices often continue to rise to a high in mid-December and are at a premium during the holiday season:
  •     Examples: Ugg Boots, Citizen Watch, name brand purses

What to Buy After Black Friday

Mid-December is the best time to buy popular blenders, juicers, microwaves, and laptops.

  •     Blenders and juicers: Mid-December is the best time to buy the most popular blenders and juicers. Black Friday is also a good time to buy.
  •     Expected savings: 16 percent or an average of $16.50.
  •     Microwaves: Mid-December is the best time to buy.
  •     Expected savings: 10 percent, $16.
  •     Laptops: Mid-December is the best time to buy during the holiday season.
  •     Expected savings, 20 percent, $55.

Is anything a good deal on Black Friday or Cyber Monday? Yes, there are some deals.

Black Friday is a good day to go shopping for a select number of products including home fitness equipment, some small kitchen appliances, videogames and videogame consoles. Apple had a $50 off Black Friday deal last year and this is one to watch for holiday 2012 in case they repeat the offer.

  •     Home Fitness Equipment: Black Friday is a great time to buy. You can pay quite a bit more buying in the height of the holiday season.
  •     Expected savings: 30 percent or $81.
  •     Video Games and Video Game Consoles: Black Friday is a great time to buy. You can also see great deals before and during the holiday season. This is a highly volatile product.
  •     Expected savings: 16 percent or an average of $30.

What was Tracked

Decide tracked millions of price movements from dozens of the top retailers—including Amazon, Best Buy, Sears, Walmart and more-- during the 2010 and 2011 holiday shopping season. Pricing periods were split into before Black Friday, Black Friday, the week after Black Friday, two weeks after Black Friday, mid-December, and the last week before December 25.

Tips for Consumers

     -Stay in bed on Black Friday and skip the hype of CyberMonday.

     -Buy online for the lowest prices, up to 44 percent lower on popular items.

     -Check price predictions ( shows you the future price of a product up to two weeks in the future). If prices are predicted to drop by a meaningful amount, set an alert on them to catch the price drop.

     -Don’t go in blind looking for deals. Have the knowledge or a smart phone app that can help before making the purchase so you can quickly see if the advertised deal is a real savings or just an advertisement.

     -Think about negotiating in-store. Forty-eight percent of retailers will match or beat a lower price online.

Consumers can view the full suite of pricing history and pricing predictions on holiday products by becoming a Decide member for $30 per year.

About Decide
Decide is a team of technologists committed to providing objective, data-driven shopping advice. Decide’s technology helps consumers find the highest rated products and predicts the best time to buy. Since launch in June 2011, Decide's price predictions have been 77 percent accurate and have helped uncover $127 Million in savings through “buy” or “wait” price predictions for customers over the past year.

The company was co-founded by Internet search pioneer Prof. Oren Etzioni, founder of Farecast, the travel price predictor, and Netbot, the web's first comparison-shopping engine. The Seattle-based company has raised $8.5M in venture capital from Madrona Venture Group, Maveron and angel investors. contact: Shauna Causey, 206.612.7122

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Shauna Causey

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