InvestorPlace Forecasts Real Estate in 2013, REMI Responds

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The Real Estate Marketing Insider announces its opinions on an editorial in InvestorPlace examining possibilities for the real estate market in 2013.

The Real Estate Marketing Insider responded to an opinion piece in InvestorPlace that suggested a slow recovery would be more likely for the real estate market than quick upward motion. REMI commented on many of InvestorPlace’s forecasts, and added some tips for real estate professionals to stay prosperous in the new year.

While most experts have predicted that the real estate market would grow substantially in 2013, Ethan Roberts of Investor Place is less convinced. Roberts said that he is expecting “mixed results” in 2013, for four reasons: higher mortgage fees from the Federal Housing Authority; a large backlog of foreclosed properties and a return to foreclosures that could dilute the market; disappointing unemployment numbers and questions about Obamacare; and less interest in homebuying among young people, who are increasingly electing to rent for longer.

On the hopeful side, Roberts cited increased mortgage eligibility as foreclosed buyers from the housing crash become eligible for mortgages again, new inventory helping to tamper price increases, and second-home buying becoming more popular. Roberts foresees that his short-term concerns will tamper growth in 2013, but eventually the positive factors will take over and exponential growth will occur - Roberts called this forecast an “L-shaped recovery.”

Roberts is making some valid points, but REMI thinks that his concerns are overblown. As REMI reported earlier this month, the return to foreclosure sales is being driven by buyers who have trouble procuring mortgages. As jobs numbers continue to increase - although Roberts is unimpressed by the jobs report, unemployment is just 7.7 percent now, down from 8.5 percent at the beginning of 2012 - REMI forecasts that banks will regain confidence in lending and more applicants will get mortgages. This will drive the foreclosure market-share down much faster than expected, as buyers turn back to new and non-distressed homes.

REMI disagrees with Roberts on the numbers for young people and homebuying. While it’s true that more people ages 24-35 are deciding to rent for longer and buy later, and that it may have something to do with a lack of market confidence, REMI stated that the old-fashioned real estate process doesn’t fit into a young lifestyle. As social media marketing for real estate, mobile marketing and online realty sites grow and thrive, it will be easier for a young professional to make room in his/her life for a home search. Last week, a major California realtor added an extensive online component to their business, and the week before another online real estate startup made the guest list at a high-profile convention; these changes are happening now. They may not immediately boost numbers for home sales to younger Americans, but the growth of that sector should be steady, not depressed for the first part of 2013, like Roberts suggests.

Real estate agents who are worried about the 2013 forecast should invest in online marketing; diversify their portfolios to include rentals and small properties, which will definitely attract interest in the new year; and concentrate on local properties and developing a reputation in their community, to attract buyers and sellers who may be waiting until after the new year to take action.

The Real Estate Marketing Insider responded to an opinion piece in InvestorPlace which analyzed the market forecast for 2013. InvestorPlace suggested that there might be problems with slow growth at the beginning of 2013; REMI disagrees, saying that IP’s Ethan Roberts was ignoring advertising and real estate innovation’s effect on the market, especially with young buyers.

About the Real Estate Marketing Insider: REMI is an online journal that provides real estate professionals with breaking news, hot tips and trend analysis. The publication is based in La Jolla, CA.

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