National Housing Market Trends; Reality Distortion When Comparing Home Price Indices

Share Article’s Lessons from the Data highlights different national housing market trends and a new method for better results.

"The Home Value Forecast Index uses median sold home prices per square foot of living area to normalize for the effect of different sized homes." - Michael Sklarz, Collateral Analytics Principal

Pro Teck Valuation Services’ explores the decline in home prices since the peak in the market reported by the most widely read national home price indices.

In its most recent edition of Lessons from the Data, published today, results of these indices (S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, the FHFA Home Price Index, FHFA HPI Refinancing Value estimates, and reports from the NAR) are compared to highlight inherent biases in some of these indexes and limits that prevent them from telling what is really happening with home prices at the micro (ZIP code, neighborhood) level.

The report explores improvements in data and methodology that can be used to develop more granular and timely indexes, providing relevant changes in housing values for the homeowners or investor.

“As compared to the other national indices, the Home Value Forecast Index uses median sold home prices per square foot of living area to normalize for the effect of different sized homes which is, in almost all cases, the most important property characteristic in determining a home’s value,” said Michael Sklarz, contributing author of the Lessons from the Data and principal with Collateral Analytics.

Home Value Forecast, built using Collateral Analytics data, captures all sale data at the time of the transaction and applies methodologies that enable delivery of timely and micro market indexes that reflect what is currently happening in the micro market of interest.

For a closer look at this Lessons from the Data, including nine supporting graphs and an in-depth review of methodology, please visit

About was created from a strategic partnership between Pro Teck Valuation Services and Collateral Analytics. HVF provides insight into the current and future state of the U.S. housing market, and delivers 14 market snapshot graphs from the top 30 CBSAs.

Each month delivers a monthly briefing along with “Lessons from the Data,” an in-depth article based on trends unearthed in the data.

HVF is built using numerous data sources including public records, local market MLS and general economic data. The top 750 CBSAs as well as data down to the ZIP code level for approximately 18,000 ZIPs are available with a corporate subscription to the service. To learn more about Home Value Forecast and Pro Teck’s full suite of residential real estate valuation products visit us at


Media Contact: Janice Walker, JD Walker Communications, LLC
781-290-6528 or jdwalker(at)jdwalkercommunications(dot)com.

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