PIRA’s Agriculture Analyst Calls Argentina’s Lower Crop Report Correctly

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PIRA's Agricultural commodities analyst Pete Meyer had been sounding the warning about the likelihood of lower-than-expected corn and soybean production from drought-ridden Argentina as early as February.

PIRA Energy Group
Based on interactions with farmers in Argentina at the turn of the year, we had some serious concerns on the production numbers expected by the USDA and Argentine Government

Agricultural commodities analyst Pete Meyer had been warning clients of PIRA’s Agriculture Commodities Retainer Service about the likelihood of lower-than-expected corn and soybean production from drought-ridden Argentina as early as February. “Based on interactions with farmers in Argentina at the turn of the year, we had some serious concerns on the production numbers expected by the USDA and Argentine Government,” said Meyer on Thursday afternoon after Argentina’s Agricultural Ministry cut its expected production numbers to 20.3 million metric tons in corn production and 42.9 million metric tons in soybeans.

In a report sent to clients in mid-March and then again on April 9th, the day before the scheduled release of the USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, Meyer estimated Argentina’s corn production at 20.0 million metric tons while setting their soybean production number at 42.5 million metric tons. “While the April WASDE lowered corn to 21.5 million metric tons and soybeans to 45 million metric tons, we still had our doubts that the USDA was aggressive enough in its cuts considering what farmers had been telling us since January,” said Meyer, adding, “Even the Argentine government has a little bit more work to do in our opinion,” referring to the release on Thursday afternoon, which pushed both corn and soybeans higher into the closing bell on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Launched in March, PIRA's Agricultural Commodities Retainer Service (ACRS) is designed to update clients on global agricultural markets and ever-changing production and demand estimates, while offering insights on financial, as well as physical, trading opportunities through detailed price forecasts. The service is centered on corn, soybeans, soy products, and wheat, but includes coverage of other commodities such as cattle, hogs, and ethanol. While primarily quantitative in nature, ACRS also offers a unique view into the minds of major global farmers and Ags professionals on everything from fertilizer purchases and application tendencies to crop and seed choices.

For more information on ACRS, or on PIRA Energy Group, please contact:

PIRA Energy Group
3 Park Avenue, 26th Floor
New York, NY 10016
212-686-6808
sales(at)pira(dot)com

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