Romney Leads Obama 45.6% to 41.1% Among Likely Voters, According to Latest American Pulse(TM) Analysis

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3,688 respondents participated in the 1st July American Pulse conducted 7/2-7/9/2012, utilizing BIGinsight™ and reInvention survey panels. The latest analysis looks at Likely Black, Hispanic and Female Voters who voted for Obama in 2008 and shows that the president is losing some support among this group. The analysis shows that the president will likely lose millions of votes from his former supporters to Romney, while millions of votes from former supporters who are now undecided remain at-risk.

There is a decline of support among 2008 Black, Hispanic and Female supporters hurting President Obama.

Mitt Romney maintains his lead over Barack Obama at 45.6% to 41.1% among Likely Voters, according to the most recent American Pulse™ Survey (July-12, N=3,688). A factor contributing to Romney’s lead appears to be a loss of support among Blacks, Hispanics and Women who voted for Obama in 2008. Gaining support among Black Voters will be an uphill battle for Romney as Obama carried 96% of their vote in 2008. 81.5% of Likely Black Voters, however, currently say that they would cast a ballot for the incumbent if the election were held today.

Of Blacks (Non-Hispanic) who voted for Obama in 2008 and are likely to vote in 2012, 14.7% report they are undecided between the incumbent and the challenger, translating to an estimated 2,416,727 voters. Further, 1.8% (295,904) would cast a vote for Romney, for a combined total of approximately 2.7 million at-risk votes.

It seems as though there is some uncertainty among Obama’s 2008 Hispanic supporters as well. 67% of Hispanics voted for Obama in 2008. When asked who they would vote for today, 60.5% of Likely Hispanic Voters would re-elect the president. Of the Hispanics who voted for Obama in 2008 and are likely to vote in 2012, 8.5% say they are undecided, translating to an estimated 1,252,036 voters. Further, 7.0% (1,033,993) would vote for Romney for a collective 2.3 million votes at risk.

According to the analysis, an estimated 3.7 million voters who supported Obama in 2008 are undecided when you combine Non-Hispanic Blacks and Hispanics. This could signal bad news for the President as historically, the majority of undecided voters tend to swing towards the challenger on Election Day.

2008 Obama Supporters    

Blacks (Non-Hispanic)        
Undecided: 2,416,727        
Vote for Romney: 295,904

Undecided: 1,252,036        
Vote for Romney:1,033,993

Whites (Non-Hispanic)        
Undecided: 7,192,854        
Vote for Romney: 6,139,217

Undecided: 10,861,618        
Vote for Romney:7,469,114

Source: American Pulse™ Analytics

When you factor in Non-Hispanic Whites who voted for Obama but are now either undecided or voting for Romney, the total estimated number of at-risk votes for Obama surpasses 18 million. Compared to the total number of votes cast for Obama in 2008, it accounts for 26% of his total ballots now being at-risk.

For full complimentary report that includes how these segments view the Obama Administration’s healthcare plan, click here.

Another group that helped carry Obama to the presidency in 2008 was Women. But it seems there may be some erosion among this segment as well. 42.8% of Likely Female Voters say if the election were held today, they would vote for Obama. This is a 21.4% drop off since the 2008 election in which 54.5% say they voted for him.

American Pulse™
The American Pulse™ provides a timely view of how people feel about topics such as politics, pop culture and the economy through the American Pulse InsightCenter™. This center provides advanced cloud-based technology-driven answers, which are delivered via multiple devices (PC/Tablet/Smartphone), regarding the current state of the union through the eyes of Americans. 3,688 respondents participated in the July 1 American Pulse conducted 7/2-7/9/2012. Margin of error is +/- 1.6% at the 95% confidence level.

reInvention LLC
reInvention LLC provides global sampling and data collection services. Driven by a passion for making it incredibly easy to survey audiences anywhere in the world, reInvention delivers high-quality responses and superior results. OneOpinion, reInvention’s respondent panel, is a next generation survey taking platform that encourages survey participation through sophisticated technology, honest communications, and respectful compensation. reInvention was founded by Hugh Davis and Keith Price and is headquartered in Westport, CT.


Chrissy Wissinger, Senior Manager, Communications
Dianne Kremer, Senior Analyst


reInvention LLC
Jim Nikolis

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