Bellwether Company Signals Global Slowdown; Special Report by Leading Financial e-Letter Investment Contrarians

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In a recent Investment Contrarians article, editor Sasha Cekerevac states his belief that many indicators used when making economic forecasts are backward-looking, meaning they tell us what has happened in the global economy, not what will happen. Cekerevac notes that when making his economic forecasts, he analyzes what certain corporations are actually saying about the global economy, and he believes one of the best companies to research regarding the global economy is FedEx Corporation.

Bellwether Company Signals Global Slowdown; Special Report by Leading Financial e-Letter Investment Contrarians

Bellwether Company Signals Global Slowdown; Special Report by Leading Financial e-Letter Investment Contrarians

“FedEx tracks shipments of packages extremely closely. This is highly correlated with the global economy, as it has business in most major business centers around the world,” comments Cekerevac.

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In a recent Investment Contrarians article, editor Sasha Cekerevac states his belief that many indicators used when making economic forecasts are backward-looking, meaning they tell us what has happened in the global economy, not what will happen. Cekerevac notes that when making his economic forecasts, he analyzes what certain corporations are actually saying about the global economy, and he believes one of the best companies to research regarding the global economy is FedEx Corporation.

“FedEx tracks shipments of packages extremely closely. This is highly correlated with the global economy, as it has business in most major business centers around the world,” comments Cekerevac.

What we are currently seeing in FedEx’s latest statement is that the overall global economy appears to be weaker than many have estimated in their economic forecasts, he explains. According to Cekerevac, for the fourth-quarter 2012, which ended May 31, FedEx stated that U.S. package shipments down 4.9% from a year ago. Operating profit margins also declined from 8.4% in the year prior period to 7.8% for the quarter, he reports.

The company also stated that its assumptions in its economic forecasts are relatively decent at 2.2%, with the caveat that the firm expects a successful conclusion to the European debt crisis, notes Cekerevac. He notes the company also is incorporating a deal to keep the fiscal cliff from being enacted.

“These are two big ifs,” the Investment Contrarians editor points out. “The global economy is being juggled in many nations, and it creates a lot of difficulties in trying to calculate economic forecasts.”

In Cekerevac’s opinion, many believe management is trying to lower estimates further, this way making it easier for the firm to beat this lowered guidance. He questions the truth of this, noting that the actual data show a switch to lower-priced transportation products and an overall decrease in shipments. As long as these kinds of data are seen coming out from FedEx and other multinational corporations, economic forecasts will continue to be reduced, as the U.S. and global economies continue to weaken, Cekerevac concludes.

To see the full article and to get a real contrarian perspective on investing and the economy, visit Investment Contrarians at http://www.investmentcontrarians.com.

Investment Contrarians is a daily financial e-letter dedicated to helping investors make money by going against the “herd mentality.”

The editors of Investment Contrarians believe the stock market and the economy have been propped up since 2009 by artificially low interest rates, never-ending government borrowing and an unprecedented expansion of our money supply. The “official” unemployment numbers do not reflect people who have given up looking for work and are thus skewed. They believe the “official” inflation numbers are also not reflective of today’s reality of rising prices.

After a 25- to 30-year down cycle in interest rates, the Investment Contrarians editors expect rapid inflation caused by huge government debt and money printing will eventually start us on a new cycle of rising interest rates.

Investment Contrarians provides unbiased research. They are independent analysts who love to research and comment on the economy and investing. The e-newsletter’s parent company, Lombardi Publishing Corporation, has been in business since 1986. Combined, their economists and analysts have over 100 years of investment experience.

Find out where Investment Contrarians editors see the risks and opportunities for investors in 2012 at http://www.investmentcontrarians.com.

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