Maven Presidential Tracker: Obama’s Lead Shrinks as the Economy Continues to Falter

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Sixth in a Series of Maven Survey of Political Experts Now Available

Maven 2012 Presidential Tracker

The political experts we surveyed still think Obama will win, but even those who support him expressed serious concerns that if the economy doesn’t begin to recover, he will lose.

President Barack Obama will win November’s presidential election, according to twenty-five top political insiders surveyed by Maven, the Global Knowledge Marketplace. Unlike “opinion polls” which measure political preferences among voters, Maven sought the opinions of influential political consultants, lobbyists, and government relations professionals about the outcome of the current campaign. Many respondents pointed to a languishing economy as contributing to Obama’s potential downfall, although the majority believe Obama will ultimately prevail despite this obstacle.

Maven’s previous tracking survey conducted in May of the same group of experts showed Barack Obama with a commanding lead, beating Romney by nearly 40 percent on the question of who is likely to win in November. That lead has tightened to 20 percent in the latest survey, reflecting a growing sentiment among respondents that Mitt Romney is solidifying his base and rapidly gaining ground. 60 percent of respondents believe that Barack Obama will win reelection in November 2012, down from 69 percent in the April survey and matching his total in the January survey. Meanwhile, Mitt Romney bounced back from a low of 31% in April before he had achieved victory in the brutal Republican primaries, to receive 40% this month.

The respondent pool includes equal numbers of 2008 supporters of John McCain and Barack Obama. One-quarter of all respondents believe the nominee of the party they supported in 2008 will lose in 2012.

“It was clear from the April results that Mitt Romney had a lot of work to do to convince political insiders that he could beat Obama in November, even with national polls showing a close race. In the intervening three months, however, Obama hasn’t done himself any favors. A number of well-publicized gaffes and anemic jobs data have put his reelection hopes in serious jeopardy,” commented Maven Co-Founder and CEO Wyatt Nordstrom. “The political experts we surveyed still think Obama will win, but even those who support him expressed serious concerns that if the economy doesn’t begin to recover, he will lose.”

This is the sixth in a series of surveys conducted by Maven leading up to the November 2012 election. Results are tracked to illustrate how sentiment among the respondent population changes as events unfold. Additional commentary and full results tracking are available at http://www.maven.co/blog/2012/07/17/july-presidential-survey/.

Members of the news media interested in speaking with the Survey respondents should contact Maven at info(at)maven(dot)co.

About Maven
Maven is a global network of industry professionals, thought leaders, and experts who connect, share knowledge, and help each other address business challenges of all sizes. Maven’s proprietary “microconsulting” platform provides instant access to highly qualified experts from every background via paid knowledge sharing interactions, including:

  •          Telephone Consultations
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  •         Extended Consulting Projects
  •         Intelligence Markets
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  •         Knowledge Communities, powered by Maven

Maven – Faster Insights. Smarter Decisions.

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Wyatt Nordstrom

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