6.3 Million of Obama’s 2008 Female Supporters Now Voting for Romney or Undecided; 6.6 Million Men Follow Suit, According to Latest American Pulse™ Analysis

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3,447 respondents participated in the August 2 American Pulse conducted 8/20-8/27/2012 utilizing BIGinsight™ and reInvention survey panels. The latest analysis looks at Male and Female voter groups. It highlights an estimated number of “at-risk” votes for President Obama by looking at Americans who cast a ballot for him in the 2008 election and identifying who they would chose if the election were today. The analysis also uncovers differences among Men and Women when it comes to social media and politics. And takes a quick look at how voters in key swing states – Ohio and Florida – are leaning for POTUS.

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A loss of support among Women and Men who voted for Obama in 2008 appears to be a factor contributing to Romney’s lead.

With the Republican National Convention underway, Mitt Romney has the lead over Barack Obama among Likely Voters at 45.5% to 43.1%, according to the most recent American Pulse™ Survey (Aug-12, N=3,447). A loss of support among Women and Men who voted for Obama in 2008 appears to be a factor contributing to Romney’s lead.

Mitt Romney has an uphill battle wooing Women likely to vote in November (a majority of which report voting for Obama in 2008). Ann Romney’s RNC speech was geared towards the female demographic and the Romney campaign has made an extra effort to connect with them along the campaign trail. It appears that Mitt has made inroads picking up some ‘08 Obama female supporters along the way.

Of Women who voted for Obama in 2008 and are likely to vote in 2012, 9.7% report they are undecided between the incumbent and the challenger and 7.7% would cast a vote for Romney. On the other hand, 10.4% of likely male voters who previously voted for Obama say they are undecided while 10.5% would vote for Romney. These percentages translate to an estimated 6.3 million votes among Women and 6.6 million votes among Men.

2008 Obama Supporters*    

Likely** Women Voters
3.5 million

Vote for Romney    
2.8 million

Total “At-Risk”    Votes
6.3 million

Likely** Men Voters                    
3.3 million

Vote for Romney    
3.3 million

Total “At-Risk”    Votes
6.6 million

Source: American Pulse™, Aug.2 Survey (8/20-8/27/2012)
*Voted for Barack Obama in the 2008 Presidential Election
**Likely Voters are defined as those who are somewhat/very likely to vote in the 2012 presidential election

Five Key Differences between Male and Female Voters Likely to Vote in 2012 Presidential Election:
1.    Men are more likely to be influenced by social media when it comes to how they will vote. 34.6% of Men who use social media somewhat/strongly agree that it influences their vote vs. 29.8% of Women who use it.
2.    Men are more likely to believe information about the candidates on social media. 26.3% agree/strongly agree that the information is accurate, compared to 20.6% of Women.
3.    Men are more likely to be influenced by negative campaign ads. 23.5% of Men agree that the ads influence their vote vs. 20.1% of Women.
4.    Men are more excited to vote. 63.2% vs. 54.6%.
5.    Both genders agree that Paul Ryan would make a better president than Joe Biden. Men are at 47.9% for Ryan vs. 31.9% for Biden. The spread is closer among Women: 36.7% for Ryan vs. 32.9% for Biden.

For a full complimentary report – Battle of the Sexes: Presidential Election 2012, click here.

Swing State Update – Eye on Ohio and Florida:
It looks as though Romney has gained some momentum in Ohio and Florida. Obama is flat in the Buckeye State, while more people are undecided in Florida. With the RNC in town, Floridians may be keeping an open mind as they listen in on what Republican politicians have to say.

Aug. 1 Survey        
Obama 40.8%            
Romney 38.9%            
Undecided    20.3%            

Aug. 2 Survey
Obama 40.8%
Romney 42.8%
Undecided    16.4%

Aug. 1 Survey    
Obama 41.9%            
Romney 43.7%            
Undecided    14.4%            

Aug. 2 Survey
Obama 33.2%
Romney 49.1%
Undecided    17.7%

Source: American Pulse™, Aug. 1 Survey (8/6-8/13/2012); Aug.2 Survey (8/20-8/27/2012)

American Pulse™
The American Pulse™ provides a timely view of how people feel about topics such as politics, pop culture and the economy through the American Pulse InsightCenter™. This center provides advanced cloud-based technology-driven answers, which are delivered via multiple devices (PC/Tablet/Smartphone), regarding the current state of the union through the eyes of Americans. 3,447 respondents participated in the August 2 American Pulse conducted 8/20-8/27/2012. Margin of error is +/- 1.7% at the 95% confidence level.

reInvention LLC
reInvention LLC provides global sampling and data collection services. Driven by a passion for making it incredibly easy to survey audiences anywhere in the world, reInvention delivers high-quality responses and superior results. OneOpinion, reInvention’s respondent panel, is a next generation survey taking platform that encourages survey participation through sophisticated technology, honest communications, and respectful compensation. reInvention was founded by Hugh Davis and Keith Price and is headquartered in Westport, CT. http://www.reInvention.com


Chrissy Wissinger, Senior Manager, Communications
Dianne Kremer, Senior Analyst

reInvention LLC
Jim Nikolis

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