Top political scientists predict outcome of the 2012 presidential election

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Twenty eminent election forecasters explain their forecasting models and offer their predictions for the 2012 US presidential election, in PS: Political Science and Politics, published by Cambridge University Press for the American Political Science Association.

Twenty eminent election forecasters explain their forecasting models and offer their predictions for the 2012 US presidential election, in PS: Political Science and Politics, published by Cambridge University Press for the American Political Science Association.

With a range of forecasting models and experts, the forecasts vary, but none are predicting a big win either way; yet another indication that 2012 is shaping up to be another very close race.

Five models predict a modest to close plurality for Barack Obama (though three of these are on the cusp of predicting a toss up), five predict a modest to close popular vote victory for Mitt Romney, and three regard the election as a toss up. The forecasts range from predicting a 53.8% vote for Obama to a 53.1% vote for Romney.

Editor of the journal’s forecasting symposium, James Campbell, said: “It is difficult to say exactly why the forecasts vary as much as they do this year, but it appears that those that rely more on the existing holder of office and early public opinion indicators tilted more toward Obama, while those that depend more on objective economic variables tipped toward Romney.”

The thirteen forecasts and introduction will be published in the October issue of PS: Political Science and Politics, scheduled for release in late September. Articles will be available online, for free, for a limited time at http://journals.cambridge.org/psc.

ENDS

Note to editors
For further information please contact Michael Marvin of Cambridge University Press at (001) 212.337.5041 or by email at mmarvin@cambridge.

About PS: Political Science & Politics
PS: Political Science & Politics is the journal of record for political science reporting on research, teaching, and professional development. PS, first published in 1968, is the only quarterly professional news and commentary journal in the field and is the prime source of information on political scientists' achievements and professional concerns.
For more information go to http://journals.cambridge.org/psc

Contributing to the October issue forecasting symposium are:

  •     Alan Abramowitz of Emory University,
  •     Michael Bednaczuk University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee,
  •     Michael J. Berry of University of Colorado, Denver,
  •     Kenneth N. Bickers of University of Colorado, Boulder,
  •     James Campbell, University at Buffalo, SUNY,
  •     Alfred Cuzán of University of West Florida,
  •     Robert Erikson of Columbia University,
  •     Douglas Hibbs
  •     Thomas Holbrook of the University of Wisconsin at Milwaukee,
  •     Florian Hollenbach, Duke University,
  •     Bruno Jerôme, University of Paris,
  •     Véronique Jerôme-Speziari, University of Paris,
  •     Carl Klarner of Indiana State University,
  •     Michael Lewis-Beck of the University of Iowa,
  •     Brad Lockerbie of East Carolina University,
  •     Jacob Montgomery,Washington University, St. Louis,
  •     Helmut Norpoth of Stony Brook University,
  •     Charles Tien of Hunter College, CUNY,
  •     Michael Ward of Duke University, and
  •     Christopher Wlezien of Temple University.

About APSA
APSA, founded in 1903, is the leading professional organization for the study of political science and serves more than 15,000 members in more than 80 countries. With a range of programs and services, APSA brings together political scientists from all fields of inquiry, regions, and occupational endeavors within and outside academe, with the aim of expanding awareness and understanding politics.

For more information go to: http://www.apsanet.org

About Cambridge University Press
Cambridge University Press is the publishing business of the University of Cambridge. Dedicated to excellence, its purpose is to further the University's objective of advancing knowledge, education, learning, and research.    

Its extensive peer-reviewed publishing lists comprise 45,000 titles covering academic research, professional development, over 300 research journals, school-level education, English language teaching and bible publishing.    

Playing a leading role in today’s international market place, Cambridge University Press has more than 50 offices around the globe, and it distributes its products to nearly every country in the world.

For more information go to: http://www.cambridge.org

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Cambridge University Press
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