Industry revenue is growing, but a double dip or a spike in the price of oil could be another setback
Los Angeles, CA (PRWEB) September 20, 2012
The Global Tourism industry is worth an estimated $1.15 trillion in 2012, with revenue rising at an annualized 1.5% over the past five years. According to IBISWorld industry analyst Craig Shulman, however, “This hides a strong decline in 2009 as the global economy sank into recession and tourist numbers fell sharply.” Forecast steady growth of 3.0% in 2012 indicates a return to better conditions for the industry as international visitor numbers increase. Data from the United Nations World Tourism Organization indicates that although the industry generally began to recover in 2010, it was an uneven recovery. Total international arrivals increased by 6.4% to 940 million and are estimated to have reached 983 million in 2011.
During 2009, international arrivals fell by 6.0% in Europe, 5.0% across the Americas, 6.0% in the Middle East and 2.0% in the Asia-Pacific. Africa bucked the trend and recorded 5.0% growth. “But late in the year,” says Shulman, “a strong rebound in demand occurred across the Asia-Pacific and the Middle East, areas that were not as badly affected by the global recession.” The International Air Transport Association also reported positive air transport data among its members from September 2009. According to Deloitte, hotel occupancy rates began to improve late in the year in some key tourist destinations across the globe. Many regions experienced poor performances in their domestic tourism markets as the economic recession deepened, particularly in major developed countries.
The level of concentration for the top four operators is less than 10.0% of revenue, dominated by large airlines, tour operators and travel agencies. Among the major players are Carlson Companies Inc., TUI AG, Deutsche Lufthansa AG and Air France-KLM S.A. As the largest accommodation operators (Marriott, Accor and Hilton) derive their income mostly from domestic occupants, their market shares in the industry are all under 0.5%. Further analysis indicates that the majority of operators in the industry are subject to a low level of concentration, largely stemming from the large number of small business operators and, therefore, the fragmented nature of the industry. Market share concentration has been low and relatively steady, with the exception of airlines and tour operators, which have been undergoing significant levels of consolidation and are expected to continue as Western markets continue to languish.
IBISWorld forecasts that the Global Tourism industry's revenue will increase over the next five years as the global economy recovers. However, there are clouds gathering on the horizon. The recovery from the recession has been slow and unemployment in most developed countries remains high, while governments have been slashing spending to reduce debts. There are fears that some economies may sink back into recession if financial shocks continue or if government cutbacks are too stringent. In addition, civil unrest in the Middle East caused oil prices to increase sharply in early 2011. High oil prices have subsequently hindered economic growth and demand for industry services, as many airlines have increased fuel surcharges to protect profit from high fuel prices.
For more information, visit IBISWorld’s Global Tourism industry report page.
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IBISWorld industry Report Key Topics
This report only deals with the short-term movement of international tourists across national borders for any purpose - business, conference/seminar, holiday/pleasure, visiting friends and relatives etc. In most cases the data represents movements across borders, with at least one night's stay in a foreign country. However, in some countries same-day trips across and back across international borders are still counted as international trips.
Key External Drivers
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Products & Markets
Products & Services
Globalization & Trade
Market Share Concentration
Key Success Factors
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