Lone Star Supports Defense Agencies as They Address the Challenges of Sequestration

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Responding to fiscal challenges Defense agencies are seeking high quality business case analysis and business modeling and simulation that enable them to deliver critical capability while lowering costs.

The real hallmark of TruNavigator™ is speed; “What-If” scenarios can be run in just seconds when critical decisions must be made, seconds count

The Department of Defense operates off long term plans and budgets, making important and irrevocable decisions years before they are implemented. For that reason, it is critical to determine the “right answers” to the highly complex issues they have to consider. In order to meet the timeline of the sequestration phase of the Budget Control Act (BCA) and make the required cuts to comply with spending caps, the DOD must begin cuts immediately. The DOD will have to frontload many of the cuts because of high short term costs such as separation payments and penalties for cancelling contracts. Even if the Congress were to amend the sequestration triggers in the next year, some decisions would be irrevocable.

Responding to these fiscal challenges in Washington, agencies are seeking high quality business case analysis and business modeling and simulation that enable them to continue to deliver critical capability while lowering costs. That is what Lone Star’s TruNavigator™ 4th generation Decision Analysis modeling environment provides. TruNav generates simulations providing a true understanding of the range of potential outcomes for any decision, regardless of size or complexity. As a result, agencies are finding real cost savings.

Large numbers of calculations are a fundamental requirement to this kind of analysis. TruNav generates 50,000 Monte Carlo sets per model node in just a few seconds on a laptop computer. This speed enables many “What-if” scenarios to be run quickly, ultimately calibrating management intuition and increasing confidence in decisions.

“TruNav is not burdened by typical spreadsheet inflexibilities,” said Mathew Bowers, Vice President of Corporate Development. “It provides a visual layout of the model. It generates simulations that are both accurate and easy to audit but the real hallmark of TruNav is speed; “What-If” scenarios can be run in just seconds. When critical decisions must be made, seconds count,” he noted.

Lone Star has gained a reputation for being able to provide highly reliable answers to complex problems and uncertain issues. For example, TruNav is often used to help government customers understand what a contract should cost and what it could cost. Another example is a predictive model that enables another agency, focused on training, the ability “to look into the future” to see how proposed alternatives will play out. Decisions regarding primary training normally take months. For the first time, ideas can be “tested” to determine their probability of success with predicted return on investment in a matter of seconds.

Lone Star has recognized that responding to the fiscal challenges in Washington requires delivering high quality benefit cost analysis (BCA) and business modeling and simulation. The company’s support has enabled customers to maintain and improve capability while lowering cost and risk.

About Lone Star
Lone Star has built a strong reputation with its clients for delivering insightful analysis, advice and support that leads to improved operational performance, monetary savings and risk reduction. Headquartered in Dallas, Texas, Lone Star has gained international recognition for its decision analysis and business modeling, by providing advisory services that address a client’s most complex, mission critical challenges. Lone Star’s roots lie in the development, fielding and support of complex technologies and programs for the Department of Defense and commercial enterprises in the telecommunications and technology markets.

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Matthew Bowers
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