Last week’s release of IEA stock data, combined with weekly data in the United States and Japan, show that commercial oil inventories in the three major OECD markets increased in the second quarter.
New York, NY (PRWEB) August 19, 2014
NYC-based PIRA Energy Group reports that there was the largest 2Q stock build in the last 10 years. In the U.S., there was a modest U.S. stock build. Specifically, PIRA’s analysis of the oil market fundamentals has revealed the following:
Largest 2Q Stock Build in Last 10 Years
Last week’s release of IEA stock data, combined with weekly data in the United States and Japan, show that commercial oil inventories in the three major OECD markets increased in the second quarter. Weak economic activity has undermined oil demand, forcing supplies into inventory. Higher inventories are undercutting PIRA’s confidence in its most recent oil price forecast. In contrast to Brent, front-month WTI remains well supported relative to further-out contracts by extraordinarily low inventories and strong September refinery demand.
Modest U.S. Stock Build
Overall commercial inventories increased this past week, keeping stocks relatively flat to last year’s level. The inventories of the four major products are 22 million barrels below last year, while crude is 6 million barrels higher.
PIRA Lowers Price Outlook
While we have not formally updated our detailed supply/demand balances, which will be done later this month, it is becoming clear that, because of weaker demand, inventories will be much higher than last month’s forecast. We should note that some of today’s downward price pressure could be coming from producer hedging.
2Q14 Tight Oil Operator Review
Second quarter results were positive across the board. There were no lingering effects from the harsh winter with considerable production gains in the Bakken, the Eagle Ford, the Niobrara and the Permian. Many operators cited renewed gains in completion efficiencies in mature plays, as well as growing success in smaller plays like the Powder River. Bakken and Eagle Ford operators increased frac sizes and laterals, leading to higher IPs and EURs. Yet the focus of the industry was centered on the delineation and development of the Permian basin, where the production potential continues to grow with the identification of further productive layers.
U.S. Ethanol Output Tumbles
For the week ending August 8, most U.S. ethanol prices rebounded from the lowest level in several months after the DOE reported production had plummeted and inventories decreased during the week ending August 1. Manufacturing margins declined slightly as the lower average price for ethanol and co-product DDG outweighed the fall in corn costs.
U.S. Ethanol Inventories Fell to a 11-Week Low 17.8 Million Barrels
Ethanol-blended gasoline production soared to a seven-week high 8,902 MB/D the week ending August 8, fairly close to the record 8,980 MB/D set earlier this year. As ethanol demand rose, inventories fell to an 11-week low of 17.8 million barrels, down 500 thousand barrels from the previous week.
The information above is part of PIRA Energy Group's weekly Energy Market Recap - which alerts readers to PIRA’s current analysis of energy markets around the world as well as the key economic and political factors driving those markets.
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