APT Index: Restaurants Continue to See Strong Sales Comps, with October Same-Store Restaurant Sales Up [+3.4%]

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Lower Unemployment Supports Positive Sales Comps

Applied Predictive Technologies (APT) today announced that the APT Index of U.S. same-store restaurant sales was up [+3.4%]* in October, or an increase of $1.6 billion** in restaurant spending, according to data from the APT Index and historical U.S. census data. The APT Index indicates that Americans spent $47 billion** at restaurants during the month. APT Index sales comps were higher in areas where unemployment decreased, complementing the recent Labor Department report of lower month-over-month unemployment in October.

Anthony Bruce, CEO of APT, said, “The APT Index allows us to understand performance of the overall economy as well as local markets. October marks the fourth consecutive month in which the APT Index of restaurant sales increased by more than 2%. Sales were even stronger in areas with lower unemployment, warmer temperatures, and lower income.”

The APT Restaurant Index enables restaurant executives to understand their “true comps.” Instead of simply looking at year-over-year changes, restaurant organizations can now compare each of their location’s sales to restaurant sales in the surrounding area to understand performance adjusted for local market factors outside of the control of decision-makers.

The APT Restaurant Index captures sales data from tens of thousands of sales registers, making it the most definitive and accurate source for restaurant sales available. Further, the APT Restaurant Index integrates thousands of other data points, including temperature, precipitation, and demographics, to allow executives to understand how various factors impact performance. With this information, executives can improve their process for setting restaurant goals, rewarding managers, understanding national initiatives, and explaining performance to executives and investors.

October Restaurant Sales – by APT Index numbers:

The nationwide APT Index of restaurant sales increased [+3.4%] in October, driven by an increase in check size [+3.6%]. Performance was better in areas where unemployment decreased year-over-year, where temperature increased year-over-year, and where median income was lower.

Jobs Help Boost Restaurant Sales

  •     In areas where unemployment decreased year-over-year, the APT Index of restaurant sales increased [+3.6%]
  •     In areas where unemployment increased year-over-year, the APT Index of restaurant sales increased [+3.1%]

Warmer Temperatures Encourage Guests

  •     In areas where temperature increased 5 to 10 degrees year-over-year, the APT Index of restaurant sales increased [+4.3%]
  •     In areas where temperature increased 0 to 5 degrees year-over-year, the APT Index of restaurant sales increased [+3.7%]
  •     In areas where temperature decreased year-over-year, the APT Index of restaurant sales increased [+2.4%]

Lower Income Consumers Moving the Needle

  •     In areas with median income less than $75K, the APT Index of restaurant sales increased [+4.3%]
  •     In areas with median income $75K or greater, the APT Index of restaurant sales increased [+2.5%]

While performance was strong overall, October restaurant sales varied among the Top 25 metro areas. The metro areas where the APT Index showed restaurants performing the best were: Denver, CO with a [+6.3%] sales increase; Riverside, CA [+4.8%]; and San Diego, CA [+4.6%]. The areas where the APT Index showed restaurants performing the worst were: New York, NY [-1.3%], Tampa, FL [-1.0%], and Portland, OR [-0.3%].

*All figures are a year-over-year, same-store comparison from October 2014 to October 2013, adjusted for consistent weekdays.

**Dollar figures are calculated by applying APT Index percentage change in sales to October 2013 U.S. census restaurant sales data (“Food Services and Drinking Places” category).

For more information, visit: http://www.predictivetechnologies.com.

About APT
APT is the world’s largest purely cloud-based predictive analytics software company. APT’s Test & Learn software is revolutionizing the way Global 2000 companies harness their Big Data to accurately measure the profit impact of pricing, marketing, menu, operations, and capital initiatives, tailoring investments in these areas to maximize ROI. APT’s client portfolio includes Walmart, Wendy’s, Starbucks, Panera, Subway, Lowe’s, SunTrust, Hilton Hotels, and others. APT has offices in Washington, D.C., San Francisco, Bentonville, London, Taipei, and Tokyo. Visit http://www.predictivetechnologies.com to learn more.

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Cathy Baker
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