New NIC Skilled Nursing Data Report Shows Growing Impact of Managed Medicare

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2015 Data Indicates Decreasing Managed Medicare Rates

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This report is NIC’s initial step to give investors greater transparency into the skilled nursing sector.

The inaugural NIC Skilled Nursing Data Report, released today, highlights the impact that Medicare Advantage plans are having on revenue in the skilled nursing sector. The report, with data through December 2015 is the first to break out managed Medicare census and rates that operators and investors can use as a tool for their modeling.

“This report is NIC’s initial step to give investors greater transparency into the skilled nursing sector,” said Robert Kramer, NIC’s CEO. “This report provides data on a few key metrics that is only 60- to 90-days old. The current government data, which is typically at least 12- to 18-months old, does not suffice to understand a sector that is going through such rapid change.”

The first report provides monthly data collected by NIC from October 2011 through December 2015. It indicates that:

  • Occupancy decreased by 180 basis points during the period. This is likely due to increased turnover resulting from a decline in average length of stay, especially for short-stay residents.
  • Managed Medicare increased slowly by 1.3% within the patient day mix, which suggests the increase in Medicare Advantage (MA) plan enrollees.
  • Managed Medicare rates have decreased by 10.1% as managed care companies have increased their enrollments, giving them greater pricing power to negotiate with providers. The cumulative annual growth rate over the period was -2.5%. The pace of decline has picked up in the last year with the increased number of MA plans and enrollees.
  • Medicare rates oscillated, which suggests case mix volatility as the rate hovered around $500

per day.

  • Medicaid rates per patient day increased by 5.5% over the period registering a 1.26% cumulative annual growth rate.

“With CMS data showing the significant increase in the number of enrollees in MA plans, our data demonstrates how these rising enrollments are translating into greater ability by MA plans to negotiate lower rates with providers,” said Bill Kauffman, NIC’s senior principal of Research & Analytics.

The NIC Skilled Nursing Data Report will be released quarterly to provide operators and investors with timely, relevant data that is not readily available from other sources. Select metrics include: occupancy, quality mix, skilled mix, patient day mix, and revenue per patient day by payor source. The current data set features time-series data from October 2011 through December 2015, giving NIC more than four years of data.

The NIC Skilled Nursing Data Report is available at NIC’s website at the link below. There is no charge for this report.

Currently the report provides aggregate data at the national level from a sampling of skilled nursing operators with multiple properties in the United States. NIC will grow its base of participating operators in order to provide data at localized levels in the future. Operators who are interested in participating can complete a participation form using the link below. NIC maintains strict confidentiality of all data it receives.

http://www.nic.org/analytics/nic-initiatives/skilled-nursing-data-initiative

About NIC
The National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care (NIC) is a 501(c)(3) organization whose mission is to advance the quality and availability of seniors housing and care—from independent living, assisted living, and memory care, to skilled nursing and post-acute care. NIC provides research, education, and increased transparency that facilitate leadership development, quality outcomes, and informed investment decisions with respect to seniors housing and care. Since 1991, NIC has been the leading source of research, data and analytics for owners, operators, developers, capital providers, researchers, academics, public policy analysts and others interested in meeting the housing and care needs of America’s seniors. For more information, call (410) 267-0504

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