SNL Kagan Releases New 10-Year Wireless Projections

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Study forecasts that 84% of U.S. population will have mobile phones by end of 2007.

While subscriber units and voice revenue will inch along, we expect data revenue to grow at a compound annual 14% rate over the next 10 years, rising to at least 22% of service revenue, compared to under 10% today.

In a just-released study, SNL Kagan estimates that 84% of the U.S. population, including consumer, business and double users, will have mobile phones by the end of 2007, with this percentage surging past 100% by 2013.

SNL Kagan's research also shows that U.S. cell phone subscriptions will grow at a rate of about 3% per year over the next decade versus total population growth of only 1%, despite decreasing net additions as 100% penetration is approached. These projections anticipate increased data use, including text, Web and video, which could be accelerated by new player business models where multimedia services get partially subsidized by advertising, similar to the approaches just starting to be tested by Google, YouTube and others.

SNL Kagan expects total industry average revenue per user (ARPU) to grow at an inflation-paced compound annual growth rate of 1.5% over the next 10 years, from $52.38 today to $61.09 by 2017. Industry hopes run much higher for data ARPU, which is already in the high single digits and grew a significant 45% from the first quarter of 2006 to the first quarter of 2007 — from $5.92 to $8.58.

"If carriers can hold onto their position in the revenue chain, data is poised to give them a second growth spurt," says SNL Kagan senior analyst Sharon Armbrust. "While subscriber units and voice revenue will inch along, we expect data revenue to grow at a compound annual 14% rate over the next 10 years, rising to at least 22% of service revenue, compared to under 10% today."

SNL Kagan provides wireless service revenue and EBITDA projections from 2006 through 2017, available exclusively as part of the SNL Kagan Information Service. For more information on this report and other media & communications data sets within the SNL Kagan Information Service, call 866-296-3743.

About SNL Kagan
SNL Kagan is the ultimate resource for complete financial intelligence on the broad and dynamic media & communications sector, including the broadcasting, cable, entertainment, motion picture, telecom, wireless, satellite, publishing and new media industries. The SNL Kagan suite of products integrates breaking news, comprehensive data and expert analysis into an electronic database available online and updated around the clock. SNL Kagan combines the 38-year heritage of Kagan Research with parent company SNL Financial's 20 years of experience in providing essential guidance to Wall Street and to America's top corporations. For more information, visit http://www.snlkagan.com .

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Lauren Keyson
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SNL Financial * One SNL Plaza * Charlottesville, VA * 22902 * 434.977.1600
Other office locations: Ahmedabad, India; Arlington, VA; Islamabad, Pakistan; Jersey City, NJ; London, England; Monterey, CA; New York, NY

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