The purpose of scenario planning is not to identify one certain outcome to plan for, but to model for how your business would perform under a variety of conceivable scenarios.
New York, NY and Philadephia, PA (PRWEB) February 28, 2012
Despite an uncertain global economy and a continually shifting regulatory environment, the top teams at the world’s leading banks are starting to plot paths toward growth. With no proven economic model to point to, bankers are attempting to understand the many possible futures they could confront over the next decade. In the industry’s first-ever interactive eBook published by Ernst & Young and Knowledge@Wharton, "Global Banking 2020: Foresight & Insights,” banking leaders explore a spectrum of potential scenarios – including some extreme possibilities – that could develop in the coming decade, along with strategies to help global banks thrive.
Banking practitioners, Wharton professors and members of Ernst & Young’s Global Banking and Capital Markets practice recently completed a year-long scenario planning exercise aimed at envisioning what the banking industry might look like eight to 10 years from now. The result is a video-enhanced eBook, the first of its kind in the global banking industry, which blends a text report with graphical information and video clips from an extensive series of interviews.
The new eBook, “Global Banking 2020: Foresight & Insights,” outlines the key strategies distilled from the scenario planning process -- strategies that will be useful for banks to consider now in order to be successful over the next decade. It makes use of video, capturing discussions between Wharton faculty and Ernst & Young banking sector leaders.
The four scenarios that emerged from the discussions are: “Business as Usual,” “Financial Issues,” “New Markets” and “Change, Change, Change.” The names reflect each scenario’s dominant characteristic. If a bank prepares for all four scenarios, it will be equipped to deal not only with these possible futures but also with those that fall in between. This includes strategies that could be used in two, three or all four scenarios.
“The purpose of scenario planning is not to identify one certain outcome to plan for, but to model for how your business would perform under a variety of conceivable scenarios,” said Ian Baggs, Ernst & Young Global Banking and Capital Markets Deputy Leader. “Institutions that organize cross-functional leadership teams to prepare long-term business strategies and contingencies will undoubtedly rise above their competitors.”
Mauro Guillén, director of the Lauder Institute and a management professor at Wharton, added: “Trigger events, especially in the banking sector, cannot be expected to unfold in a linear way. It is vital for an organization to be proactive in developing solutions for potential challenges. A reactive approach will leave you fighting to keep pace and potentially without a place in the game.”
The “Global Banking 2020: Foresight & Insights” enhanced eBook can be purchased in the Apple iBookstore and on Amazon. It can be viewed on an iPad, iPhone or iTouch using the Apple iBookstore app or the Kindle app. Additional versions of the eBook will become available shortly. For more information or to view excerpt videos, please visit the enhanced eBook preview page. The full video interviews are also available at the Global Banking: Foresight & Insights website.
About The Wharton School and Knowledge@Wharton
Knowledge@Wharton is the online business analysis journal of the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. The site, which is free, captures relevant knowledge generated at Wharton and beyond by offering articles and videos based on research, conferences, speakers, books and interviews with faculty and other experts on current business topics. The Knowledge@Wharton network – including Chinese, Spanish, Portuguese, Indian, Arabic and High School editions – has more than 1.7 million subscribers worldwide.
The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania — founded in 1881 as the first collegiate business school — is recognized globally for intellectual leadership and ongoing innovation across every major discipline of business education. The most comprehensive source of business knowledge in the world, Wharton bridges research and practice through its broad engagement with the global business community. The School has more than 5,000 undergraduate, MBA, executive MBA, and doctoral students; more than 9,000 annual participants in executive education programs; and an alumni network of 88,000 graduates.
About Ernst & Young’s Global Banking & Capital Markets Center
In today’s globally competitive and highly regulated environment, managing risk effectively while satisfying an array of divergent stakeholders is a key goal of banks and securities firms. Ernst & Young’s Global Banking & Capital Markets Center brings together a worldwide team of professionals to help clients achieve their potential – a team with deep technical experience in providing assurance, tax, transaction and advisory services. The Center works to anticipate market trends, identify the implications and develop points of view on relevant industry issues. Ultimately it enables us to help clients meet their goals and compete more effectively. It’s how Ernst & Young makes a difference.
About Ernst & Young
Ernst & Young is a global leader in assurance, tax, transaction and advisory services. Worldwide, our 152,000 people are united by our shared values and an unwavering commitment to quality. We make a difference by helping our people, our clients and our wider communities achieve their potential.
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This news release has been issued by Ernst & Young LLP, a US client-serving member firm of Ernst & Young Global Limited.