Another Active Hurricane Season is Expected

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Harris-Mann Climatology, a long-range weather, commodity and stock advisory service, predicts the number of named tropical storms has the potential to approach 20 for the 2013 season.

the biggest threat of hurricane landfall is along the Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern coastline from Florida to the Carolinas. We should see at least 2 or 3 hurricanes make landfall in 2013.

Harris-Mann Climatology forecasters predict that another active tropical storm and hurricane season may be just around the meteorological corner. They believe this upcoming season has the potential to approach 20 named storms, compared to the normal of 11 in the Atlantic and Caribbean waters.

According to Meteorologist Randy Mann, "the latest sea-surface temperature data shows a La Nada, the in-between cooler La Nina and warmer El Nino, ocean waters. During El Nino years, the number of tropical storms and hurricanes are often less than normal as the change in wind patterns will sheer off the tops of the tropical storms and prevent their development. By contrast, during La Nina and La Nada years, the number of tropical storms and hurricanes are usually higher than average."

Harris-Mann Climatology also points out that in addition to the La Nada pattern, sea-surface temperatures are slightly higher off the coast of Africa where the tropical storms develop. Ocean waters are also a bit warmer in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, which favors hurricane development.

Harris-Mann Climatology forecasters predict approximately 15 to 19 named storms with 7 to 9 of them becoming hurricanes this year. Four or five of these potentially deadly storms are expected to become major hurricanes, reaching at least a Category 3 status. The overall average is 11 named storms with 6 becoming hurricanes during an entire season, which begins on June 1.

The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season was the third most active season. It tied with 1887, 1995, 2010 and 2011 with a total of 19 storms. In 2005, there were 28 named storms. The most significant storm last year was Hurricane Sandy, which was the second costliest U.S. hurricane with about $2 billion in damages. Hurricane Katrina, in 2005 during the record hurricane and tropical storm season, was the most costly in history.

"For 2013, the biggest threat of hurricane landfall is along the Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern coastline from Florida to the Carolinas. We should see at least 2 or 3 hurricanes make landfall in 2013. High pressure to the north should hold many of these massive storms south of the Mid-Atlantic States. However, late in the season, around mid October to early November, there could be another Category 1 or 2 storm that moves up the East Coast. In 2011, there was Hurricane Irene, 2012 had monster Hurricane Sandy, so there is the possibility of a third big storm later this year," says Climatologist Cliff Harris.

Harris-Mann Climatology has a daily advisory service that specializes in providing state of the art short and long-range weather analysis plus fundamental and technical mathematical stock and commodity forecasts. Many investors depend on this service to track grain, soybean and other commodity futures both mathematically and fundamentally. The company also provides free detailed monthly temperature and precipitation forecasts for most U.S. and world cities on their website at http://www.LongRangeWeather.com.

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Randy Mann/Cliff Harris
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