Local Market Monitor Releases Latest Home Price Forecast for Local Markets

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Forecasting solution identifies Top 10 and Bottom 10 housing markets, also releases National Economic Summary.

What we’re seeing in these markets is the result of speculative buying that came to an abrupt end

Local Market Monitor, the premier real estate forecasting solution, today released its latest Home Price Forecast, covering nearly 300 US local markets. The forecast identifies markets where home prices will continue to drop as well as stable markets with opportunities for growth.

According to the forecast, the 10 markets with the best expected performance in home price, predicted to show increases of at least 2 percent are:

Abilene, TX
Decatur, AL
Fayetteville, NC
Lafayette, IN
Laredo, TX
Lubbock, TX
Monroe, LA
Montgomery, AL
Tuscaloosa, AL
Williamsport, PA

These top markets, where home values are expected to hold up, are among those that did not have a big housing boom. Home prices in these areas are generally under the US average and reflect where the recession has so far had a relatively mild impact.

“These are markets where home prices never got out of synch with local incomes,” said Ingo Winzer, president of Local Market Monitor. “In such markets, the recession has less of an impact on home values than in markets that were over-priced.”

The 10 markets with the worst expected performance in home price, predicted to show further declines of around 25 percent are:

Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
Las Vegas, NV
Merced, CA
Miami-Miami Beach, FL
Modesto, CA
Naples, FL
Riverside-San Bernardino, CA
Salinas, CA
Stockton, CA
Vallejo-Fairfield, CA

These markets, which are expected to have the largest declines in home values in the next year, are also among those that previously had the biggest price booms, attributed in large part to speculative buying.

“What we’re seeing in these markets is the result of speculative buying that came to an abrupt end,” said Winzer. “Although home values have already dropped substantially, it takes years for such markets to fully correct.”

Local Market Monitor also released its latest National Economic Summary, which comments on the overall predicted behavior of the national housing market. According to the summary:

  •     Investors can expect to see an average 8 percent drop in home prices nationally during the next 12 months.
  •     Mortgage delinquencies are now at record levels because of the repercussions of easy credit that fueled the housing boom.
  •     Despite the recession, some industries are faring relatively well—among them: restaurants, food, clothing and drug stores, the health care sector and government jobs.

To read the full report, click here.

About Local Market Monitor:
Local Market Monitor, the premier real estate forecasting solution, offers investors in homes and home mortgages the local market risk intelligence they need to make better decisions. Using a proprietary formula called the Equilibrium Home Price, Local Market Monitor determines if markets are currently over or under valued, equipping users with a long-term risk and investment perspective. Covering nearly 300 local markets, Local Market Monitor also presents key investors with a 12-month home price forecast. The solution includes sorting capabilities allowing subscribers to view and compare real estate markets along various metrics. Local Market Monitor is based in Cary, NC and has provided expertise in evaluating residential property values since 1990. To learn more, visit http://www.localmarketmonitor.com.

Media Contact:
David Buffaloe
M-pact Marketing
919.301.8538
dbuffaloe (at) m-pactmarketing.com

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