Local Market Monitor Announces Release of Fourth Quarter Home Price Forecast for Largest US Markets

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Real estate forecasting solution predicts home values for Top and Bottom housing markets and releases National Economic Outlook

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Although an actual turnaround in home prices won't happen until after the economy achieves better growth, further large decreases will mainly be confined to markets in Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada.

Local Market Monitor, the premier real estate forecasting solution, today released its fourth quarter Home Price Forecast, which predicts local market behavior for well over 300 US local markets over the next 12 months. The forecast identifies markets where home prices will continue to drop as well as stable markets with opportunities for growth.

According to the forecast, among the largest US markets -- identified as those with populations greater than 600,000 -- the markets* with the best expected performance in home price are:

  • Baton Rouge, LA
  • Columbia, SC
  • Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
  • Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX
  • Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
  • New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA
  • Pittsburgh, PA
  • Rochester, NY
  • San Antonio, TX
  • Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, CA

*List is abbreviated. To see the expanded list of top markets, click here.

These top markets include some, such as those in Texas, where good home prices increases are likely once the economy improves, and others, notably in New York, where poor economic prospects make future price gains less likely.

“Even our ‘top’ markets don't yet show price increases; rather, they're markets where prices will be steady,” said Ingo Winzer, president and founder of Local Market Monitor. “Significantly, we now see Santa Ana-Anaheim among those markets, with Los Angeles not very far behind, as demand for housing from population growth absorbs excess inventory in Southern California.”

The largest markets with the worst expected performance in home price are:

  • Bakersfield, CA
  • Bradenton-Sarasota-Venice, FL
  • Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach, FL
  • Fresno, CA
  • Las Vegas-Paradise, NV
  • Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL
  • Orlando-Kissimmee, FL
  • Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ
  • Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA
  • San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
  • Stockton, CA
  • West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach, FL

“Although an actual turnaround in home prices won't happen until after the economy achieves better growth, further large decreases will mainly be confined to markets in Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada,” said Winzer. “These markets represent where massive overbuilding took place.”

To see the top and bottom markets for the 215 smaller MSAs covered by Local Market Monitor, click here.

Local Market Monitor also recently released its latest National Economic Outlook, which comments on the overall predicted behavior of the US economy and national housing industry. According to the summary:

  • Delinquency rates on credit cards have now been flat for three quarters at 6.5 percent. With commercial real estate loans souring rapidly, banks will expand credit card lending as their best bet for profits.
  • The employment situation has stabilized at 132 million jobs, down 7 million since 2007. This is a turning point that will encourage renewed, albeit cautious, spending.
  • A recovery in the housing markets and a pick-up in home prices is still a long way off. Overall, national home prices in the third quarter of 2009 were down 5 percent from a year ago. Expect to see a further 5 percent decrease in home prices during the next 12 months, with double-digit decreases in some markets.

To read the full report, click here.

About Local Market Monitor
Local Market Monitor, the premier real estate forecasting solution, offers investors in homes and home mortgages the local market risk intelligence they need to make better decisions. Using a proprietary formula called the Equilibrium Home Price, Local Market Monitor determines if markets are currently over or under valued, equipping users with a long-term risk and investment perspective. Covering over 300 local markets, Local Market Monitor also presents key investors with a 12-month home price forecast. The solution includes sorting capabilities allowing subscribers to view and compare real estate markets along various metrics. Local Market Monitor is based in Cary, NC and has provided expertise in evaluating residential property values since 1990. To learn more, visit http://www.localmarketmonitor.com .

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