Romney Three Times More Likely Than Gingrich to Win Florida Primary

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In a prediction market conducted by Infosurv and GMI, over 70% of traders banked on Mitt Romney winning the Florida Primary on Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Seven out of 10 prediction market traders rallied behind Romney when asked “If the Florida Republican Primary were held today, which of these Presidential candidates would receive the most votes?”

GOP frontrunner Mitt Romney is a 3-1 favorite over Newt Gingrich to win the Florida Primary, according to a recent Infosurv prediction market of US representative traders. Infosurv, the leading prediction markets research firm, reports that the findings of its prediction market conducted on January 29th also align with recent political poll rankings. This prediction market parallels Infosurv’s earlier predictions that correlated to projected outcomes in both Iowa and South Carolina.

Seven out of 10 prediction market traders rallied behind Romney when asked “If the Florida Republican Primary were held today, which of these Presidential candidates would receive the most votes?” Strong trader confidence was echoed with statements on his ability to repair the economy and the broad appeal of his campaign. “He seems to be able to do a lot more for the economy, plus his views are more in common with the average man,” says one trader.

Trailing second behind Romney, a quarter of the traders believed that Newt Gingrich would win the primary. Traders justify their confidence in the Former House Speaker commenting on his recent poll momentum and debate performances, “I believe he is going to stand strong, challenge, and win debates against President Barack Obama. Newt Gingrich has a lot of experience in US politics and understands what it takes to get this country back in the right course.” Those opposed to Gingrich believe he lacks integrity and overall public appeal.

Infosurv adapted this virtual market design to predict the success of political candidates – proving that a representative general population sample can be just as effective as a targeted sample in determining election results. Recognized as one of the research industry’s most innovative new technologies, iCE (the Infosurv Concept Exchange) is a virtual online trading market, proven more accurate at predicting future outcomes than conventional surveys, polls, or individual experts. iCE markets give traders virtual currency to invest in the concepts, new products, or advertisements they feel will be most successful and pay out real cash bonuses if they select the market winner or outcome that actually occurs.

Infosurv partnered with GMI (Global Market Insite, Inc.), a leading provider of technology-enabled solutions for global market research, to collect responses from a nationwide random sample of 354 U.S. respondents. GMI’s proven credentials in the use of scientific statistical sampling techniques allows for a truly balanced and representative sample of the U.S. population. iCE traders responded to the Florida iCE market invitation on January 29th, 2012.

About Infosurv

Infosurv is a full-service survey research firm based in Atlanta, Georgia, leading the Market Research industry in the development and implementation of prediction markets. Founded in 1998, Infosurv has grown to be a trusted research partner for hundreds of organizations around the world, including Fortune 500 Companies, small businesses, and government agencies. For more information, please visit us online at

About GMI

GMI (Global Market Insite, Inc.) provides access to the right people at the right time to deliver the right results, empowering researchers and marketers worldwide to generate reliable, consistent and actionable information that enhances their decision making capability. Founded in 1999 with global headquarters in Bellevue, WA, GMI has operations in America, Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information, please visit us online at or email us.

For further information, please contact John Barrett at (404) 846-6878; john.barrett(at)infosurv(dot)com or from GMI, Kathy Miller (206) 315-9329; kmiller(at)gmi-mr(dot)com.


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