immoderate consumer debts, Federal deficits, trade imbalances, inequality of income and wealth, runaway speculation in real estate and stocks, insecure social security, plunging business ethics and environmental degradation
Bow, WA (PRWEB) March 28, 2008
A predictable pattern drives today's economic breakdown, says author and economist Jack Lessinger; theory tracks socioeconomic transformations since 1790.
Jack Lessinger's economic teeter-totter is slow moving, but sure. The heavyweights sitting at each end are socioeconomic agendas. At one end, now on the rise, according to Lessinger: "What's in it for US." At the other, sinking, end: "What's in it for ME."
Most interesting, and most vitally relevant to the current U.S. economy, is Lessinger's evidence that each transformation has a period when the waxing and waning economies are in maximum conflict and disarray--a condition he names schizomania. His carefully tracked numbers put today's economic woes smack dab in the middle of the 1990-2020 schizomania.
"In the bust of 2008, a drop of home prices below many mortgages is eroding the collateral base of our entire banking system. Home prices are unlikely to rise again," Lessinger predicts. According to his theory, the economic cycle is fixed and the excesses leading to today's recessionary rumblings have been in place for decades.
Lessinger's theory, expounded in his latest book, TRANSFORMATION: Fall of the Consumer Economy - Rise of the Responsible Capitalist, traces the "L-wave" transformations that have defined five generations, from the Mercantile Aristocrats, peaking in 1790, to the Bantam Capitalists of 1845, the Great Industrialists of 1900, the Consumer Little Kings of 1960 and the Responsible Capitalist, emerging in the 21st century.
The early 20th century socioeconomy, peaking post-WWII, was characterized by "an accelerating consumer binge," complete with "immoderate consumer debts, Federal deficits, trade imbalances, inequality of income and wealth, runaway speculation in real estate and stocks, insecure social security, plunging business ethics and environmental degradation," says Lessinger, in his blog, TransformationEconomics.com.
Today, with costs spiraling out of control and resources waning, this materialistic urge "is slowly yielding to the satisfactions of defending the community." Lessinger defines such "Responsible Capitalism" as a cycle born around 1960 and peaking in 2020--but not before the possibility of a full-blown depression.
Jack Lessinger's theory has been maturing right along with the emergence of Responsible Capitalism. Since he earned his Ph.D. at the University of California, Berkeley, he has published eight books, including Regions of Opportunity (Random House, 1986); Penturbia: Where Real Estate Will Boom After the Crash of Suburbia (SocioEconomics, 1991); Schizomania: Split Society, Perilous Economy, 1990-2020 (SocioEconomics, 2003); Your County: Boom or Bust? Rise of Penturbia & Fall of Suburbia (SocioEconomics, 2006); and TRANSFORMATION: Fall of the Consumer Economy - Rise of the Responsible Capitalist (SocioEconomics, 2008).
"No one has provided a better conceptual framework for understanding the bear market in North American real estate than Jack Lessinger," says Robert W. Czeschin, global investor and author, The Last Wave: Oil, War, and Money Shocks in the Final Days of the 20th Century.