Lithuania Autos Market Forecasts to 1.4 Percent by 2013 in New Research Report at

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“Lithuania Autos Report 2013” is the new report added to online market research reports library of

New passenger car sales in Lithuania rose 64.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2011, to 12,294 units, according to the state registration agency Regitra. New commercial vehicle sales also grew by 95.8% y-o-y, to 4,690 units, according to figures released by the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA).This gave a total new vehicle sales figure of 16,984 units for the year, an increase of 72.2% y-o-y. However, it has been a different story in 2012 year-to-date, with new passenger car sales down by 2.5 %over the first nine months of the year, at 8,900 units. Commercial vehicles sales have also fallen back, down by 5.2%, to 2,972 units over the January-August period.

Against this deteriorating backdrop, we have revised down its 2012 new passenger car sales forecast to a fall of 5% for the full year. With commercial vehicle sales also set to decline by some 7%, this equates to a 5.5% annual decline across the new vehicle sales autos market as a whole. The forecast is based on increased evidence of a renewed slowdown in the Lithuanian economy; with our Macroeconomic team forecasting growth of just 1.4% in 2013, down from 2.3% growth in 2012. Domestic demand is also being suppressed by both falling private consumption growth and still-high unemployment (13.3% in Q212). Inflation is also still potentially a concern for the domestic economy, with the HICP measure of inflation standing at 3.4% in September 2012, although this is down from earlier in the year. This raises the spectre of the Bank of Lithuania potentially having to increase interest rates from current low levels of just 1.5%. Higher interest rates would also feed into higher loan rates on car financing agreements, which could further depress demand over the short term.

Beyond 2013, our team is more optimistic on the longer term outlook for the Lithuanian new vehicle sales market, forecasting expansion of 36.9% in total vehicle sales between end-2013 and end-2017, to reach 23,695 units. This is based on our view that a more pronounced recovery in demand from developed markets and improved fiscal dynamics should pave the way for a stronger growth trajectory and, by extension, higher new car sales for the country. Commercial vehicle sales will grow at a faster rate than that for passenger cars over the forecast period. The main threat to our new car sales forecasts remains a break-up of the euro zone, with the risk remaining that Greece may have to default in 2013. In terms of manufacturers, Germany’s Volkswagen (VW) is the dominant player in the Lithuanian new car sales market, selling 2,257 units in 2011. In second place is Japanese automaker Nissan Motor, which sold 1,663 units, followed by French car maker Peugeot, which sold 1,398 units. Other key players on the Lithuanian new vehicle market include Skoda and Toyota Motor in the passenger car segment and Fiat in the commercial vehicle segment.

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Major Points from Table of Content

Executive Summary. 5
SWOT Analysis ... 6
Lithuania Autos Industry SWOT.... 6
Lithuania Political SWOT... 7
Lithuania Economic SWOT. 8
Lithuania Business Environment SWOT.. 9
Global Overview 10
UK Boosts Europe, But Favorites Still Outperform... 10
Table: Passenger Car Sales 8M12. 10
Incentive Boom For Japan, US Powers On... 10
CEE Regional Overview…14
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings... 15
Poor Show From Western Europe Hurts Region's Score In Ratings…21
Industry Forecast Scenario…26
Table: Lithuania Auto Sales, 2010-2017…26
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario…28
Table: Lithuania - Economic Activity, 2011-2016…31
Table: Lithuania - Top 10 Best-Selling Manufacturers September 2012…33
Table: Lithuania - New CV Sales 2011…33
Table: Lithuania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)…43
Table: Lithuania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)…44
Table: Lithuania's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020…45
Table: Lithuania's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020…45
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts…46
Table: MEA Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Risk/Reward Ratings, Q113…8
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators, 2008-2016…19
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators, 2008-2016…22
Table: Healthcare Governmental Indicators, 2008-2016…22
Table: Healthcare Private Indicators, 2008-2016…23

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Priyank Tiwari
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