Harris-Mann Climatology Reports the Potential for a White Christmas

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Harris-Mann Climatology, a long-range weather and commodity forecasting service, predict a healthy 50% chance of a White Christmas southward into the central U.S. this year.

Chances For a White Christmas

The chances for snow in late December have increased because the warmer El Nino sea-surface temperature event in the south-central Pacific Ocean has dissipated.

Harris-Mann Climatology’s annual snowfall Christmas forecast predicts a high 80% chance or greater of at least an inch of snow on the ground across most of Canada and much of the extreme northern U.S. north of Interstate 90 on December 25.

“The chances for snow in late December have increased because the warmer El Nino sea-surface temperature event in the south-central Pacific Ocean has dissipated and is no longer influencing global weather patterns,” says Meteorologist Randy Mann.

According to Harris-Mann Climatologist Cliff Harris, “As frigid Arctic air pushes southward into the northern and central U.S., heavier snowfalls are expected from the violent collisions between the very cold air to the north and copious amounts of moisture from the North Pacific regions as well as the Gulf of Mexico. We’ve already seen above normal amounts of snowfall across parts of the northern U.S. due to a strengthening Sub-Polar Jet Stream. Several ski resorts have already opened for business in the Pacific Northwest.”

Harris-Mann forecasters see at least an 80 percent chance of a White Christmas from Canada southward into extreme northeastern Washington, northern Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, northern Minnesota and points eastward into New England. Probabilities dip to 50 percent between Interstate 90 and Interstate 80, which includes most of Idaho, Colorado, South Dakota, much of Nebraska, Iowa, northern and central Illinois, northern Ohio and Pennsylvania and New York State, but not New York City. The Big Apple only has a 30 percent chance of a White Christmas this year.

“Cities and towns in the central U.S. near Interstate 70 eastward to the Mid-Atlantic states likewise have around a 30 percent chance of seeing snow on the ground on December 25. There is only a 10 percent chance of a White Christmas across most of the southern U.S. this year, but anything is possible in this cycle of wide weather ‘EXTREMES.’” according to Harris.

In 2010, rare snows were reported on Christmas Day in northern Mississippi, northern Georgia and the Carolinas. This year, however, there is only a 10 percent chance of snow in these areas on December 25. Last year, in 2011, a light dusting of snow was seen in drought-stricken North Texas. For 2012, the chances are only 30 percent or so for Amarillo and 10 percent for the Dallas/Ft. Worth areas.

Around the globe, much of northern Europe and northern Asia have a very good chance for a White Christmas again in 2012. Record snows have already buried northern Japan this November as well as parts of northwestern China and Mongolia.

According to Harris, “the northern British Isles have a 50 percent chance of a White Christmas, which is high for that Gulf Stream warmed region. There is a strong 80 to 100 percent probability of snow across Norway, Sweden and Finland in Scandinavia. From eastern Europe into Russia, there is a 60 to 90 percent chance for a White Christmas. Even northern Italy has a 20 to 30 percent chance of seeing snow on December 25. There could be a rare blanket of snow this December 25 in Venice, Italy, where the canals froze last winter for the first time in decades.”

Detailed monthly temperature, precipitation and snowfall forecasts for most U.S. and Canadian cities, including graphics, plus outlooks for the following 12 months for most major world cities are available at http://www.LongRangeWeather.com.

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