Dallas, Texas (PRWEB) May 21, 2014
The number of multiple sclerosis (MS) prevalent cases across the ten major markets (10MM) will increase from 904,908 in 2013 to 940,413 by 2023, at an Annual Growth Rate (AGR) of 0.39%. The company’s latest report ”EpiCast Report Multiple Sclerosis – Epidemiology Forecast to 2023” states that among the 10MM (the US, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, Japan, China and India), India will have the highest increase in prevalent cases, with an AGR of almost 2%, followed by Spain and China, with AGRs of 1.05% and 0.93%, respectively.
Despite having lower AGRs, epidemiologists forecast that the US will have the highest number of prevalent cases of MS by 2023, with 303,343, followed by Canada with 142,199 and Germany with 140,209. Regional differences in MS prevalence and incidence could be due to several factors, including the differing diagnostic criteria used, the availability of medical technology, genetic and environmental risk factors, the frequency of commodities, and population age and sex structures.
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Epidemiologists used country-specific sources published by peer-reviewed journals to estimate the incidence and prevalence of MS in each of the 10MM. To provide a thorough description of the MS patient population in each country, epidemiologists segmented MS incident and prevalent cases by age and sex, both of which strongly affect the epidemiology of MS. Moreover, cases are segmented into three common sub-types: relapsing-remitting MS, primary progressive MS, and secondary progressive MS. A major strength of this analysis is that the forecast methodology was consistent across the 10MM to allow for a meaningful comparison of the patient populations in each country.
Although China and India had significantly lower MS incidence rates than the other countries in 2013, their large population sizes are the main factor contributing to their high number of incident cases. With less availability of diagnostic MRI technology in China and India, compared with western countries, case ascertainment in these countries is not as precise. Less accurate case diagnosis can result in diseases, such as neuromyelitis optica, being misclassified as MS, and may have resulted in an overestimation of the latter’s incidence in China and India.
Low MS prevalence proportions in these countries could also be related to the genetic makeup of these populations, as MS is more commonly diagnosed in Caucasians than individuals of any other race/ethnicity. This is even the case in western countries where MRI technology is widely available.
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This report provides an overview of the risk factors and comorbidities of Multiple Sclerosis, and global and historical trends in the 10 major markets (the US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, Japan, Canada, China and India). It includes a 10-year epidemiological forecast of MS prevalent and incident cases segmented by sex and age.
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