Retail Market Research Q1 2013 Forecast Reports for Russia & Bulgaria at

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The Russian & Bulgarian Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags short term concerns about the impact on Russia & Bulgarian economic outlook of the risk of capital flight and over dependence on oil.

The report examines how best to maximize returns in the Russian & Bulgarian retail market while minimizing investment risk, and also explores the impact of the ongoing crisis in the country’s main export market, Europe, on the Russian & Bulgarian consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realize returns in the short term.

The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Russian & Bulgarian retail sector, as they seek to maximize the growth opportunities offered by the local market.

  •     Russia retail market per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 44% between 2013 and 2016, compared with a regional growth average of 33%. The country comes third in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, although it underperforms significantly for Risk.

Among all retail categories, mass grocery retail (MGR) will be the outperformer through to 2016 in
growth terms, with sales forecast to grow much faster than overall food sales throughout the forecast period, by almost 132% to US$231.46bn by 2016. This would take MGR’s share of the overall food market from 42.1% in 2013 to 80.8% by 2016.

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  •     Bulgaria retail market per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by a modest 17% between 2013 and 2017, compared with a regional growth average of 33%. The country is eighth out of 10 in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) retail risk/reward ratings, largely owing to its modest GDP per capita. However, 10th-placed Croatia’s small population, lack of modern retail space and lengthy bureaucratic procedures mean Bulgaria is unlikely to move down the table over the forecast period.

Among all retail categories, consumer electronics will be the outperformer through to 2017 in growth terms, owing to relatively low household penetration rates for digital product groups such as notebook computers (30% CAGR projected) and LCD TV sets (17% CAGR). This report forecasts a 20% increase in sales, from US$1.41bn in 2013 to US$1.70bn by 2016.

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Major Points from Table of Contents

SWOT Analysis
Russia & Bulgarian Retail Business Environment SWOT
Russia & Bulgarian Political SWOT
Russia & Bulgarian Economic SWOT
Market Overview
Current Trends
Key Players
Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
Retail Growth Outlook
Table: Retail Sales Indicators, 2009-2016
Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, 2013f
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Economic Activity
Regional Retail Outlook
Central And Eastern Europe Retail Outlook
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Trends, 2009-2016
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (US$bn, unless stated)
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Retail Sales By % Share, 2009-2016
Regional Retail Trends
Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Regional Retail Business Environment Ratings
Russia & Bulgarian Retail Rating
Limits To Potential Returns
Risks To Realization Of Returns
Mass Grocery Retail
Russia & Bulgarian Mass Grocery Retail SWOT
Market Overview
Table: Structure Of The Mass Retail Grocery Market By Number Of Outlets, 2003-2011
Table: Structure Of The Mass Retail Grocery Market By Value, 2003-2011
Table: Average Sales Value per Retail Outlet - 2011
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2009-2016
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type
Table: Trade Indicators, 2009-2016
Industry Developments
Consumer Electronics
Russia & Bulgarian Consumer Electronics Market SWOT
Market Overview
Table: PC Sales, 2008-2016
Table: AV Sales, 2009-2016
Mobile Handsets
Table: Mobile Communications, 2008-2016
Three Most Popular Models In Different Pricing Categories In MTS Retail Network Q311, % Of Total Units Sold
Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Electronics Market
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2008-2016
Industry Developments
Russia & Bulgarian Autos Industry SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Domestic Sales
Table: Autos Sales, 2010-2016
Table: Autos Production, 2010-2016
Table: Autos Trade, 2010-2016
Passenger Cars
Table: Passenger Car Segment, 2010-2016
Demographic Outlook
Table: Russia & Bulgarian Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Russia & Bulgarian By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Russia & Bulgarian Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Russia & Bulgarian Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Table: Slovakia Total Premiums, 2010-2017
Key Insights And Key Risks
SWOT Analysis
Slovakia Insurance Industry SWOT
Slovakia Political SWOT
Slovakia Economic SWOT
Slovakia Business Environment SWOT
Life Sector Overview
Central And Eastern Europe Life Sector Overview
Table: Central And Eastern European Life Premiums, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
Slovakia Life Sector Update
Life Industry Forecast
Table: Slovakia Life Premiums, 2010-2017
Growth Drivers And Risk Management Projections

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