Genscape Hurricane Sandy Public Blog Update Oct.30: 9:00AM

Effort Aimed at Increasing Public Safety and Awareness

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PJM's Current Mid Atlantic Load Forecast

The orange line shows where demand originally was forecasted while the green line indicates today's actual forecast including power outages across the region. (More than a 10 GW difference)

Boston, MA (PRWEB) October 30, 2012

Weather Commentary:

Mid Atlantic / South - Overcast conditions and cool temperatures persist throughout the region, with scattered showers and temperatures in the upper 30s for South and mid 40s for MidA. Well over 2 million customers remained without power this morning, bringing morning demand close to 10 GW below what would normally be expected for similar day in MidA. Difference is much lower for South, with only a few hundred MW difference noticed. As conditions become safer for crews to fix power, demand should increase slowly throughout the day, but the rate of this increase is difficult to discern as many conditions could result in prolonged outages.

PJM West - Cloudy, cool, and breezy conditions are in place across West this morning, and although there are outages reported across West Virginia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, load has not been strongly impacted thus far this morning. At this point, the expectation is for upside driven by weather conditions to outweigh outage driven downside.

•The Salem 1 nuclear unit (1.1GW) in AE remains at 0% following a manual reactor trip yesterday due to flood and debris risk from Sandy.

•Both Limerick nuclear units 1 and 2 (2.4GW total) in PPL remain derated to 48% and 27% respectively. While the impact of Sandy is the likely cause of this, the NRC has not released any notification as of this morning.

Transmission Outages:

•More than 225 transmission lines or transformers have gone out of service since 3:30pm yesterday.

•These outages will limit the amount of power that can flow into downtown Baltimore. While there are a number of outages in BGE, the demand may be strong enough to drive congestion that would increase energy costs in the region.

•These outages take out a major transmission path from West Virginia into the eastern portion of PJM (Virginia, Washington DC, and Baltimore). Generators are already ramping this morning in Virginia to help offset the loss of this transmission path.

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