SNL Kagan Publishes 2008 Updated Analysis of TV and Radio Market Revenues

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Small-to-midsize markets and Hispanic metro areas show the greatest growth potential

In an updated analysis of radio and television market revenues, SNL Kagan identifies small-to-midsize markets in the Pacific region, especially in metro areas with large Hispanic populations, as having the greatest growth potential. The report, "Radio/TV Station Annual Outlook: Market-by-Market Revenue Projections,” published annually by SNL Kagan for over 20 years, takes into account overall broadcast revenue trends, market demographics and expected ad revenues from the presidential election in determining a market’s growth potential.

Radio Market Revenues by CAGR Rank
CAGR Rank, Market, ‘07 Market Rank, CAGR ‘07-‘12, Retail Growth ‘07-‘12
1. San Diego, CA, 17, 2.0%, 11.9%
2. Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA, 26, 1.9%, 10.1%
3. Stockton, CA, 79, 1.9%, 11.9%
4. San Jose, CA, 35, 1.9%, 8.9%
5. Fresno, CA, 66, 1.9%, 10.7%

SNL Kagan estimates five-year annual revenue growth of 1.1% for radio markets, despite a 2.5% drop in total radio revenue in 2007. San Diego tops the list of fastest-growing markets, largely due to a substantial Hispanic population, the shifting economic focus to high-tech jobs and a five-year retail growth rate of 11.9% (well above the national average of 6.5%). Overall, radio revenues in the Pacific region are expected to grow rapidly, with 13 of the top 20 markets by revenue residing in California.

Television Market Revenues by CAGR Rank
CAGR Rank, Market, ‘07 Market Rank, CAGR ‘07-‘12, Retail Growth ‘07-‘12
1. Las Vegas, NV, 43, 6.2%, 7.9%
2. San Diego, CA, 27, 6.1%, 11.9%
3. Los Angeles, CA, 2, 5.7%, 7.7%
4. Phoenix, AZ, 12, 5.6%, 6.4%
5. San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose, CA, 6, 5.6%, 7.3%

Likewise, SNL Kagan projects growth in TV revenues (3.9% over the next five years) despite a 2007 decline of 8.5% generated by the writers’ strike and advertising migration to the Internet. TV ad revenues are expected to rise 8.8% in 2008 from TV ad buys connected with the presidential election. The largest growth will likely be in the Pacific and Mountain regions, with Las Vegas and San Diego at the top of the list.

At the other end of the spectrum, the Great Lakes and Central South regions rank lowest for both radio and TV revenue projections. Slow retail growth and auto industry layoffs are the main factors for the depressed outlook in the Great Lakes, where revenue is projected to grow 2.7% for TV and 0.9% for radio. The Central South, particularly the Mississippi markets still recovering from Hurricane Katrina, faces tough times ahead, with projected revenue growth of 2.8% for TV and 0.8% for radio.

Reports such as "Radio/TV Station Annual Outlook" are available exclusively as part of the SNL Kagan Information Service. For more information on this report and other media and communications data within the SNL Kagan Information Service, call 866.296.3743 or email SNLKaganSales @ snl.com.

About SNL Kagan
SNL Kagan, a division of SNL Financial LC, is a comprehensive resource for financial intelligence in the media and communications sector, including the broadcasting, cable, entertainment, motion picture, telecom, wireless, satellite, publishing and new media industries. The SNL Kagan suite of products integrates breaking news, comprehensive data and expert analysis into an electronic database available online and updated around the clock. For more information, visit http://www.snlkagan.com.

About Kagan Media Appraisals
Kagan Media Appraisals, the consulting arm of SNL Kagan, offers custom studies, white papers, briefings, business plans, research reports and appraisals from SNL Kagan’s team of expert analysts. KMA is recognized industrywide for actionable advisories, expert opinions, best practices, regulatory assessments and market data. Contact KaganConsulting @ snl.com or 831.624.1536 for more information.

SNL Contact
Rick Wilkes
Marketing Manager
434.951. 7715
rwilkes @ snl.com

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