WSI: Very Warm Fall Period in Store for Much of the US

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WSI and ESAI Expect US Early-Season Heating Demand during September-November Period to Decrease 3% Year-Over-Year

WSI (Weather Services International) expects the upcoming period (September-November) to average warmer than normal across most of the US, with the exception of the Pacific Coast states. The WSI seasonal outlooks reference a standard 30-year normal (1971-2000).

“The combination of the La Nina event, a relatively cold north Pacific, and a record warm north Atlantic are quite bullish for a very warm fall period, especially across the northeastern quarter of the country,” said WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford. "However, the historically persistent negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, which would act to keep temperatures down in much of the eastern US, looms large as the most significant source of forecast uncertainty. For the September-November period as a whole, we are forecasting 901 gas-weighted heating degree days, 3% less than last year and 9% less than the 1971-2000 mean.”

In September, WSI predicts regional temperature anomalies as follows:
Northeast     – Warmer than normal
Southeast     – Warmer than normal
N Central     – Warmer than normal
S Central     – Warmer than normal
Northwest     – Cooler than normal
Southwest     – Warmer than normal, except coastal California

According to Paul Flemming, Director of Power and Gas at ESAI, “WSI is forecasting warmer-than-normal temperatures across most of the country with the exception of the Northwest. Warmer-than-normal temperatures in September will extend the summer season dynamics well into the month. Any load effects on price due to a seasonal decline in late summer temperatures will be offset somewhat by the start of the planned generator maintenance season. Northeast power prices should remain firm and gas demand above-normal through the end of summer. Natural gas prices should be supported with stronger-than-average demand in September, but we do not expect much upside without a hurricane disruption.”    

In October, WSI sees the monthly breakdown as:
Northeast     – Much warmer than normal
Southeast     – Warmer than normal
N Central     – Much warmer than normal
S Central     – Warmer than normal
Northwest     – Cooler than normal
Southwest     – Warmer than normal, except coastal California

“In October, WSI is forecasting continuing warmer-than-normal temperatures throughout nearly the entire country (except the Northwest and the California coast). The Northeast and Midwest regions may experience much-warmer-than-normal temperatures.” According to Flemming, “Power demand in most regions will reflect shoulder-season temperatures and warmer-than-normal temperatures will have less impact on load. Generator maintenance will be in full swing during October and will have a greater relative impact on power prices than variations in temperature. A reduction in early-season gas demand for heating could be offset by marginally increased demand from the power sector. Any late-season cooling demand in the southern regions, however, will result in increased gas demand.”

In November, WSI forecasts:
Northeast     – Warmer than normal
Southeast     – Cooler than normal
N Central     – Warmer than normal
S Central     – Warmer than normal
Northwest     – Warmer than normal
Southwest     – Warmer than normal, except coastal California

“In November, WSI is forecasting warmer-than-normal temperatures throughout nearly the entire country barring the Southeast.” Flemming notes that, “Warmer weather in November will delay heating-related demand for gas and power and this will be slightly bearish for natural gas prices. Power demand will be reflective of shoulder-season temperatures through November and the peak of generator maintenance will be seen in the first half of November, providing support for power prices in most regions.”

WSI, which provides customized weather information to energy traders, will issue its next seasonal outlook (for the October-December period) on September 21.

Programming Note: Tune in to CNBC Wednesday mornings at 10:30 AM (ET). WSI will be providing weekly reports on how weather will impact the oil, gas and power markets.

About WSI
WSI (Weather Services International) is the world's leading provider of weather-driven business solutions for professionals in the energy, aviation and media markets, as well as multiple federal and state government agencies. WSI is a member of The Weather Channel Companies and is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts with offices in Birmingham, England. The Weather Channel Companies are owned by a consortium made up of NBC Universal and the private equity firms The Blackstone Group and Bain Capital. More information about WSI can be found at

About ESAI
Since its inception in 1984, Energy Security Analysis Inc. (ESAI) has been dedicated to monitoring, analyzing, and synthesizing information about world-wide energy markets. Tapping the talents of its senior-level staff, ESAI provides clients with unparalleled insight into where the markets have been and where they are headed. ESAI provides ongoing systematic analysis of energy prices in the oil, natural gas, and energy markets. For more information on ESAI services, see

Linda Maynard    
(978) 983-6715    
Tommy Sutro
Energy Security Analysis, Inc.
(781) 245-2036

Editorial Contact:
Barbara Rudolph    
Rudolph Communications, LLC
(781) 229-1811


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