The Hybrid and Plug-in Hybrid Light Vehicle Report

London (PRWEB) October 17, 2013

In a recent interview with IHS SupplierBusiness, Ernie DeVincent, VP Product Development for Getrag commented: “I think it is absolutely inevitable that the penetration of hybrids is going to have to increase. And this will put a great deal of pressure on the economic side of hybrids, particularly battery costs. Because nobody will meet 54 miles per gallon in the US without a substantially higher mix of hybrids than they have today. So hybridisation is going to be a major factor and this puts a lot of pressure on economics”.

Hybrid vehicles, although not yet attaining very significant market share, are nevertheless a necessary and growing part of the future powertrain mix. Furthermore, hybridisation has more than just fuel efficiency to contribute in performance terms. The inclusion of hybrid components can deliver desirable customer features such as improved cabin features and HVAC, enhanced launch performance to overcome the weaknesses inherent in downsized engines, high boost turbocharging and optimised transmissions as well as limited electrically driven four-wheel drive (4WD) solutions. Therefore, despite the key aspect of fuel economy improvement, additional value can be delivered to the customer through other technologies associated with hybridisation.

This report looks at the Hybrid and Plug-in Hybrid Light Vehicle sector, which looks at the market drivers, current hybrid architectures and technologies, developing business models and challenges.

Introduction
•Powertrain choices
•Consumer attitudes
•Development of the Plug-in Hybrid Market
•Cost and value considerations
•PHEV Environmental Performance

Market drivers
•Emissions regulations
The United States
The European Union
Japan
China
Other countries
•Fuel costs
•Criterion emissions
The United States
Japan
Europe
China
Other countries

Hybrid architectures
•Parallel hybrid architecture
•Series hybrid architecture
•Degrees of hybridisation
Full Hybrid
Mild or Assist Hybrids
Plug-hybrids or dual mode
•Aftermarket conversions
Hydraulic hybrid architecture
Flywheel hybrid architecture
Air hybrid
•Vehicle integration

Hybrid technologies
•Higher voltage architecture
•Batteries and energy storage
Energy and power density
Cycle life
Battery costs
Cost breakdown for lithium-ion batteries
•Lithium ion battery construction
Cathodes
Future cathode development
Anode Chemistries
New anode technologies
Electrolytes and additives
Separators
Cell packaging
Safety circuits
•Battery packaging
•Manufacturing issues and quality
•Chemistry development
Metal-Air batteries
Other battery chemistries
•Super-capacitors and ultracapacitors
Energy storage membranes
•Electric motors
Direct-current (DC) Motors
Asynchronous alternating-current (AC) motors
Synchronous AC motors
Switched reluctance motors
Axial-Flux Motors
In-wheel motors.
•Integrated starter-generators (ISG)
Belt-driven alternator-starters (BAS)
Transmissions
One-mode and two-mode hybrids
Getrag
FEV
Fiat Powertrain
IAV
Jatco
ZF Friedrichafen
•Regenerative braking systems and brake blending
•Grid connection and a recharging infrastructure
Vehicle manufacturers
Charging facilities
Recharging technology companies
Wireless charging technology

Developing business models and challenges
•New players, relationships and collaborations
Public infrastructure development
Private infrastructure development
Integrated solutions
Integrating the charging infrastructure through IT

Market development
•Market dynamics and forecasts
•Development of the plug-in hybrid market
New business models for OEMs, grid companies and suppliers
•Market forecasts
North America
Europe
Japan
China

Tables

Table 1: Estimated fuel economy improvement potential and costs relative to 2005
Table 2: US emissions standards for light-duty vehicles, to five years/50,000 miles (g/mile)
Table 3: Japan emissions limits for light gasoline & LPG vehicles (g/km)
Table 4: Japan emissions limits for light diesel vehicles (g/km)
Table 5: Euro 5 emissions limits for light gasoline vehicles (g/km)
Table 6: Euro 5 emissions limits for light diesel vehicles (g/km)
Table 7 Lithium-ion battery cost breakdown
Table 8: Battery cost evolution from 2010 with a CAGR of 14%
Table 9: Four main types of cathode technology in use today (2010)
Table 10: Comparison of typical carbon anode capacities
Table 11: PHEV-EV lithium-ion cell design favoured by various companies (current/ future)
Table 12: Hybrid lithium-ion cell design favoured by various companies (current/ future)
Table 13: Potential roles within the charging infrastructure value chain
Table 14: Comparison of emerging business models

Figures

Figure 1: Roadmap for CO2 reduction
Figure 2: Cost estimates of marginal fuel economy improvement
Figure 3: Carbon dioxide emissions versus cost per percentage fuel reduction
Figure 4: Global plug-in hybrid production forecast
Figure 5: US Annual reduction in GHG production through PHEV adoption in various scenarios
Figure 6: Powertrain electrification 2010 to 2020
Figure 7: PHEV annual costs
Figure 8: Global CO2 (g/km) progress normalised to NEDC test cycle
Figure 9: Fuel economy standards to 2015 for selected countries (US mpg)
Figure 10: WTI crude oil prices (US$ per barrel, monthly average 2010 dollars), 2001 – March 2012
Figure 11: US Regular Gasoline prices $/gallon, January 2011 to June 2013
Figure 12 Emissions standards timetable in selected countries
Figure 13: NOx limits in the EU, Japan and the US, 1995 – 2010 (g/kWh)
Figure 14: PM limits in the EU, Japan and the US, 1995 – 2010 (g/kWh)
Figure 15: Hybrid electric vehicle drive configurations
Figure 16: Charge depletion to charge sustaining transition for PHEV battery packs
Figure 17: An early conversion for the PHEV Prius utilising 15 additional lead-acid batteries
Figure 18: Hydraulic hybrid operation
Figure 19: Torotrak’s Flybrid flywheel and IVT system
Figure 20: Hybrid price premium per 100,000 units
Figure 21: Peugeot’s air-hybrid architecture
Figure 22: A comparison of air-hybrid architecture efficiency with other types
Figure 23: Additional functions and changes in electrical architecture
Figure 24: Additional functionality requires higher voltages – 48 volts
Figure 25: A simple comparison of electrical energy storage systems
Figure 26: The energy density of different fuels
Figure 27: Specific power (W/kg) versus specific energy (Wh/kg)
Figure 28: Cycles by chemistry (deep discharge)
Figure 29: Application cycle requirements
Figure 30: Lithium-ion battery pack cost breakdown
Figure 31: Patent activity in lithium-ion batteries
Figure 32: Battery costs to OEMs at low volumes
Figure 33: Cathode performance compromises
Figure 34: Voltage versus capacity for some electrode materials
Figure 35: Lithium-ion and nanotechnology roadmap
Figure 36: Graphite, soft carbon, hard carbon
Figure 37: Nexeon nano structured silicon anode material
Figure 38: Anode energy density for various anode technologies
Figure 39: Silicon anode dimensional changes
Figure 40: SiNANOde™ silicon graphite composite anode material
Figure 41: LTO anode material
Figure 42: Lithium-ion prismatic battery design
Figure 43: Lithium-ion battery construction
Figure 44: Zinc-Air battery systems
Figure 45: Theoretical maximum energy density for different cell chemistries
Figure 46: Redox battery technology
Figure 47: Ultracapacitor used to overcome temperature sensitivity to temperature of li-ion battery pack
Figure 48: Ultracapacitor versus lithium-ion energy efficiency
Figure 49: Ultra-capacitor components
Figure 50: Technology roadmap for electric traction motors
Figure 51: Typical torque and power comparisons
Figure 52: A schematic of a 6/4 SRM design
Figure 53: An exploded view of a switched reluctance motor’s rotor and stator
Figure 54: Axial Flux PM motors
Figure 55: Mitsubishi MIEV
Figure 56: Protean Electric’s in-wheel electric drive modules
Figure 57: Continental’s ISAD Unit
Figure 58: Delphi’s Belt Alternator Starter
Figure 59: Toyota THS power-split transmission
Figure 60: 2-Mode transmission
Figure 61: Cutaway of a 2-Mode transmission
Figure 62: Getrag’s 7DCT300 PowerShift® transmission
Figure 63: Schematic overview of GETRAG 7HDT300 torque-split hybrid
Figure 64: Integrated electric motor cooling options
Figure 65: The advantages of an integrated 48-volt motor solution
Figure 66: FEV’s 7H-AMT
Figure 67: Fiat Powertrain compact, lightweight hybrid powertrain concept
Figure 68: Jatco's transmission for parallel hybrid vehicles featuring motor independent drive
Figure 69: Fuel efficiency comparison for ATs
Figure 69: By-wire brake system layout with regeneration
Figure 70: TRW’s second generation slip control boost brake technology
Figure 71: Mazda’s supercapacitor based regenerative braking system layout
Figure 72: Continental’s regenerative braking system layout
Figure 73: Comfortable regeneration requires uncoupling the pedal and quiet and highly dynamic of braking force regulation
Figure 74: Bosch’s iBooster unit
Figure 75: Level 2 charging units from Advanced Energy
Figure 76: SAE J1772 Connectors
Figure 77: SAE J1772 Combined Plug
Figure 78: WPT charging schematic
Figure 79: Evatran’s aftermarket available charging system
Figure 80: Changes and opportunities in the automotive value chain
Figure 81: The vehicle electrification value chain
Figure 82: A Blink charger facility linked to Cisco’s Home Energy Controller
Figure 83: Grid connected vehicles bring changes and opportunities in the value chain
Figure 84: Global plug-in hybrid production forecast to 2020
Figure 85: Global hybrid production forecast to 2020
Figure 86: Global hybrid vehicle production forecast to 2020, by region
Figure 87: Global hybrid vehicle production forecast to 2020, by region
Figure 88: Hybrid sales in the US by model, 1999 - 2012
Figure 89: US hybrid production forecast, 2013 - 2020
Figure 90: European hybrid production forecast, 2013 - 2020
Figure 91:Cumulative Toyota sales
Figure 92: Japanese hybrid vehicle production forecast, 2013 - 2020
Figure 93: Chinese hybrid vehicle production forecast, 2013 - 2020

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The Hybrid and Plug-in Hybrid Light Vehicle Report

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