Asia - Telecoms, Mobile and Broadband Forecasts

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Asia: whilst fixed-line subscribers in general decline across region, mobile still on growth path
Of Asia's key market segments, the mobile market still has more room to grow as both mobile voice and data services in various forms continue to expand at a rapid rate all through the region. In the same manner the provision of internet access across the wider region still requires more effort to connect people to the internet and as a consequence there are still plenty of opportunities for growth. Although mobile broadband services are to some extent filling the gap in this market, ultimately there will be a need for fixed broadband services with more bandwidth.

Even in the highly developed markets of Asia, the service providers are continuing their efforts to provide faster, more reliable internet services.

As already noted this report provides forecasts for subscriber growth across a range of market segments. The report provides a series of what BuddeComm terms scenario forecasts. By describing long-range scenarios we identify a band within which we expect subscriber growth to take place. The associated text describes what we see as the most likely growth trend within the identified band. The actual forecasts are summarised in a series of tables presented with the text.

Our scenario forecasting methodology applies a combination of our own historical information, together with telecommunications sector statistics from official and non-official, national and international sources. We assume a possible deviation of 15-20% around this data. All statistics for GDP, revenue, etc, are quoted in US$, in order to maintain consistency within and between the markets. At the same time we acknowledge that this can introduce some irregularities.

A set of sample tables are presented below, these being the actual scenario forecasts for Bangladesh. The upper and lower scenarios forecasts are presented for the years 2015 and 2020.

Bangladesh - forecast fixed line subscribers - 2015; 2020
Year | Lower growth scenario | Higher growth scenario
Subscribers (million) | Penetration | Subscribers (million) | Penetration
2009 | 1.52 | 1.0% | 1.52 | 1.0%
2010 | 1.55 | 1.0% | 1.55 | 1.0%
2011 | 1.60 | 1.1% | 1.60 | 1.1%
2012 (e) | 1.65 | 1.1% | 1.65 | 1.1%
2015 | 1.80 | 1.2% | 2.70 | 1.8%
2020 | 2.35 | 1.5% | 4.70 | 3.0%
(Source: BuddeComm, forecasts)
Background notes to market forecasts

Mobile markets in Asia have been experiencing strong growth during 2012 and into 2013, despite many countries in the region already having subscriber penetrations of over 150%. Growth across the region in mobile subscribers was in excess of 20% overall in 2011 and was estimated to have been about 15% in 2012 to achieve a regional total of three billion mobile subscribers by year end. This sort of growth is particularly relevant in China and India, with their huge populations. These two countries alone account for 32% and 28% overall market share in the Asia region respectively; or a massive 60% combined. The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008/2009 is the sort of thing that makes forecasting difficult. The GFC certainly caused some caution in mobile markets across the region for a while, mainly in 2009, but; after a pause, the momentum quickly begun to pick up again and effectively returned.

In terms of growth rates, not surprisingly it is the smaller and generally less-developed markets that have been expanding rapidly. More recently, the rate of growth of the mobile segment has clearly been much more subdued than back in 2007, for example; in that year there were seven countries in Asia with annual growth rates in their mobile markets in excess of 100%! By 2010 there were no markets with growth rates in excess of 100%. In the developing economies, quick and easy mobile uptake has for a long time been the preferred, and often the only, option for subscribers, given the low levels of fixed-line deployments.

Intense competition right across the mobile markets of Asia has driven handset prices and airtime tariffs downward, thus opening up mobile services to wider adoption. The rate of adoption of wireless internet has started to rise with the overall increase in mobile penetration together with networks being progressively upgraded to next generation platforms. While 3G licensing and the ongoing launch of 3G services in Asia has certainly been promoting the growth of wireless data services, 3G has also been providing opportunities for both wireless access and content providers in domestic markets. In South Asia, in particular, more people own a mobile phone than a PC, giving the delivery of mobile data services huge potential there.

For almost a decade now, growth in Asia's fixed voice market has generally been "flattening out' and in some countries the number of subscribers has gone into serious decline. Activity in the fixed voice market has simply been overwhelmed and overshadowed by the frenzied activity in the energetic and expanding mobile market. This declining trend is now clearly evident in the overall statistics for the regional market. By 2012 the total number of fixed services in Asia had dropped to an estimated 510 million, down from 566 million in 2007. Whilst many markets remain stable and some are even continuing to grow, the single biggest factor in the region's overall status is the performance of China where some 95 million fixed services have disappeared from the national subscriber base since 2006; at the time, there were 370 million fixed-line subscribers in the country. Most significantly, there are no indications of this market recovering in the short to medium term.

Finally it is noted that, whilst there are broad market commonalities across the region, there are nevertheless trends that are specific to each individual country in Asia depending on such factors as the level of technology adoption, level of foreign investment, the presence of government intervention and competition, etc. For the majority of the markets, we have attempted to address some of these issues in the notes presented with the forecasts.

Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year.

1. Afghanistan
1.1 Forecasts fixed-line market 2015; 2020
1.2 Forecasts mobile market 2015; 2020
1.3 Forecasts internet services 2015; 2020
2. Azerbaijan
2.1 Forecasts fixed-line market 2015; 2020
2.2 Forecasts mobile market 2015; 2020
2.3 Forecasts internet services 2015; 2020
3. Bangladesh
3.1 Forecasts fixed-line market 2015; 2020
3.2 Forecasts mobile services 2015; 2020
3.3 Forecasts internet services 2015; 2020
4. Cambodia
4.1 Forecasts fixed-line market 2015; 2020
4.2 Forecasts mobile services 2015; 2020
4.3 Forecasts internet services 2015; 2020
5. China
5.1 Forecast fixed-line subscribers 2017
5.2 Forecast: total mobile subscribers 2017
5.3 Forecast: 3G mobile subscribers 2017
5.4 Forecast internet users 2017
5.5 Forecast broadband subscribers 2017
5.6 Forecast FttX subscribers 2017
5.7 Cable TV market forecasts 2015
5.8 Digital cable TV market forecasts 2015
5.8.1 Forecasting methodology
6. Georgia
6.1 Forecasts fixed-line subscribers 2015; 2020
6.2 Forecasts mobile subscribers 2015; 2020
6.3 Forecasts internet subscribers 2015; 2020
7. Hong Kong
7.1 Forecasts fixed line subscribers 2017
7.2 Forecasts total mobile and 3G subscribers 2017
7.3 Forecasts broadband subscribers 2017
8. India
8.1 Forecasts fixed-line services 2015; 2020
8.2 Forecasts mobile services 2015; 2020
8.3 Forecasts internet services 2015; 2020
9. Indonesia
9.1 Forecasts fixed-line market 2015; 2020
9.2 Forecasts mobile market 2015; 2020
9.3 Forecasts internet services 2015; 2020
10. Japan
10.1 Forecasts fixed line subscribers 2018
10.2 Forecasts mobile subscribers 2017
10.3 Forecasts broadband subscribers 2017
10.4 Forecasts FttX subscribers 2017
11. Kazakhstan
11.1 Forecasts fixed-line market 2015; 2020
11.2 Forecasts mobile market 2015; 2020
11.3 Forecasts internet services 2015; 2020
12. Kyrgyzstan
12.1 Forecasts fixed-line market 2015; 2020
12.2 Forecasts internet services 2015; 2020
12.3 Forecasts mobile market 2015; 2020
13. Laos
13.1 Forecasts fixed-line market - 2015; 2020
13.2 Forecasts mobile services - 2015; 2020
13.3 Forecasts internet services - 2015; 2020
14. Macau
14.1 Forecast mobile subscribers 2017
15. Malaysia
15.1 Forecasts fixed-line subscribers 2015; 2020
15.2 Forecasts mobile services 2015; 2020
15.3 Forecasts broadband internet services 2015; 2020
16. Nepal
16.1 Forecasts fixed-line market 2015; 2020
16.2 Forecasts Internet services 2015; 2020
16.3 Forecasts mobile market 2015; 2020
17. Pakistan
17.1 Forecast fixed line market 2015; 2020
17.2 Forecast mobile market 2015; 2020
17.3 Forecasts Internet market 2015; 2020
18. Philippines
18.1 Forecasts fixed-line market 2015; 2020
18.2 Forecasts mobile services 2015; 2020
18.3 Forecasts Internet services 2015; 2020
19. South Korea
19.1 Forecast fixed-line subscribers 2017
19.2 Forecast: Mobile subscribers 2017
19.3 Forecast broadband subscribers 2017
19.4 Forecast internet users 2016
20. Sri Lanka
20.1 Forecasts fixed-line market 2015; 2020
20.2 Forecasts mobile services 2015; 2020
20.3 Forecasts Internet services 2015; 2020
21. Taiwan
21.1 Forecast fixed-line subscribers 2017
21.2 Forecast total mobile subscribers 2017
21.3 Forecast 3G mobile subscribers 2017
21.4 Forecast fixed broadband subscribers 2017
22. Thailand
22.1 Forecasts fixed-line subscribers 2015; 2020
22.2 Forecasts mobile subscribers 2015; 2020
22.3 Forecasts internet subscribers 2015; 2020
23. Uzbekistan
23.1 Forecasts fixed-line market 2015; 2020
23.2 Forecasts mobile market 2015; 2020
23.3 Forecasts internet services 2015; 2020
24. Vietnam
24.1 Forecasts fixed-line market 2015; 2020
24.2 Forecasts mobile services 2015; 2020
24.3 Forecasts internet services 2015; 2020
Table 1 Afghanistan Forecast fixed-line subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 2 Forecast mobile subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 3 Forecast internet subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 4 Azerbaijan Forecast fixed-line subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 5 Forecast mobile subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 6 Forecast Internet subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 7 Bangladesh Forecast fixed line subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 8 Forecast mobile subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 9 Forecast fixed internet subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 10 Cambodia Forecast fixed-line growth 2015; 2020
Table 11 Forecast mobile subscriber growth 2015; 2020
Table 12 Forecast internet subscriber growth 2015; 2020
Table 13 China Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration lower band 2012 - 2013; 2017
Table 14 Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration higher band 2012 - 2013; 2017
Table 15 Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration lower band forecast 2012 - 2013; 2017
Table 16 Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration higher band forecast 2012 - 2013; 2017
Table 17 Forecast 3G mobile subscribers and share of mobile market 2012 - 2013, 2017
Table 18 Forecast internet users and penetration lower band: 2011 - 2012; 2017
Table 19 Forecast internet users and penetration higher band 2011 - 2012; 2017
Table 20 Forecast broadband subscribers and population penetration lower band: 2012 - 2013; 2017
Table 21 Forecast broadband subscribers and household penetration higher band: 2012 - 2013; 2017
Table 22 Forecast FttX subscribers and penetration 2010 - 2012, 2017
Table 23 Forecast cable TV subscribers and household penetration 2012 - 2013; 2015
Table 24 Forecast digital cable TV subscribers and percentage of cable TV subscribers 2012 - 2013; 2015
Table 25 Georgia Forecast fixed line subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 26 Forecast mobile subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 27 Forecast internet subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 28 Hong Kong Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration - higher band 2011 - 2013; 2017
Table 29 Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration - lower band 2011 - 2013; 2017
Table 30 Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration higher band forecast 2012 - 2013; 2017
Table 31 Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration lower band forecast 2012 - 2013; 2017
Table 32 Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2012 - 2013; 2017
Table 33 Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2012 - 2013; 2017
Table 34 India Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates 2015; 2020
Table 35 Forecast mobile subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 36 Forecast internet subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 37 Indonesia Forecast of fixed line subscribers and penetration rates 2015; 2020
Table 38 Forecast of mobile subscribers and penetration rates 2015; 2020
Table 39 Forecast of Internet subscribers and penetration rates 2015; 2020
Table 40 Japan Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2013-2014; 2018
Table 41 Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2013-2014; 2018
Table 42 Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration lower band forecast 2012 - 2013; 2017
Table 43 Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration higher band forecast 2012 - 2013; 2017
Table 44 Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration lower band: 2012-2013; 2017
Table 45 Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration higher band: 2012-2013; 2017
Table 46 Forecast FttX subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2012-2013; 2017
Table 47 Forecast FttX subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2012-2012; 2017
Table 48 Kazakhstan Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates 2015; 2020
Table 49 Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates 2015; 2020
Table 50 Forecast internet subscribers and penetration rates 2015; 2020
Table 51 Kyrgyzstan Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates 2015; 2020
Table 52 Forecast internet subscribers and penetration rates 2015; 2020
Table 53 Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates 2015; 2020
Table 54 Laos Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates 2015; 2020
Table 55 Forecast mobile subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 56 Forecast internet subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 57 Macau Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration higher band: 2012 - 2013; 2017
Table 58 Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration lower band: 2012 - 2013; 2017
Table 59 Malaysia Forecast fixed-line subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 60 Forecast mobile subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 61 Forecast broadband internet subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 62 Nepal Forecast fixed line subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 63 Forecast fixed internet subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 64 Forecast mobile subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 65 Pakistan Forecast fixed line subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 66 Forecast mobile subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 67 Forecast internet subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 68 Philippines Forecast fixed line subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 69 Forecast mobile subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 70 Forecast Internet subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 71 South Korea Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2012 - 2013; 2017
Table 72 Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2012 - 2013; 2017
Table 73 Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration lower band forecast 2011 - 2012; 2017
Table 74 Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration higher band forecast 2011 - 2012; 2017
Table 75 Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration higher band: 2012 - 2013; 2017
Table 76 Forecast broadband subscribers and penetration lower band: 2012 - 2013; 2017
Table 77 Forecast internet users and penetration - higher band: 2012 - 2013; 2017
Table 78 Forecast internet users and penetration - lower band: 2012 - 2013; 2017
Table 79 Sri Lanka Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rate 2015; 2020
Table 80 Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rate 2015; 2020
Table 81 Forecast internet subscribers and penetration rate 2015; 2020
Table 82 Taiwan Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2011 - 2012; 2017
Table 83 Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2011 - 2012; 2017
Table 84 Taiwan - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration lower band: 2011 - 2012; 2017
Table 85 Taiwan - Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration higher band: 2011 - 2012; 2017
Table 86 Taiwan - Forecast 3G mobile subscribers and penetration lower band: 2011 - 2012; 2017
Table 87 Taiwan - Forecast 3G mobile subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2011 - 2012; 2017
Table 88 Taiwan - Forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration - lower band: 2011 - 2012; 2017
Table 89 Taiwan - Forecast fixed broadband subscribers and penetration - higher band: 2011 - 2012; 2017
Table 90 Thailand Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration rate 2015; 2020
Table 91 Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rate 2015; 2020
Table 92 Forecast internet subscribers and penetration rate 2015; 2020
Table 93 Uzbekistan Forecast fixed-line subscribers and penetration rates 2015; 2020
Table 94 Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates 2015; 2020
Table 95 Forecast internet subscribers 2015; 2020
Table 96 Vietnam Forecast fixed line subscribers and penetration rates 2015; 2020
Table 97 Forecast mobile subscribers and penetration rates 2015; 2020
Table 98 Forecast internet subscribers and penetration rates 2015; 2020

Read the full report:

Asia - Telecoms, Mobile and Broadband Forecasts

http://www.reportbuyer.com/telecoms/broadband/asia_telecoms_mobile_broadband_forecasts.html#utm_source=prnewswire&utm_medium=pr&utm_campaign=Broadband

For more information:
Sarah Smith
Research Advisor at Reportbuyer.com
Email: query@reportbuyer.com
Tel: +44 208 816 85 48
Website: http://www.reportbuyer.com

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