PharmaPoint: Type 2 Diabetes - UK Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022

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London (PRWEB) December 10, 2013

PharmaPoint: Type 2 Diabetes - UK Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022

Summary

GlobalData has released its new Country report, “PharmaPoint: Type 2 Diabetes - UK Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022”. The type 2 diabetes market is mature and crowded with inexpensive generics. Despite being marked by a late-stage pipeline filled with me-too drugs, this market will undergo substantial growth between 2012 and 2022, more than doubling over this period. The main drivers of growth will be the dramatic increase in disease prevalence and physicians’ efforts to delay disease progression and reduce the costly burden of diabetic complications through the use of combination therapies and novel branded drugs. In the emerging markets in particular, uptake of branded drugs will increase due to rapid economic growth. We anticipate that the type 2 diabetes market will not experience a fundamental shift in the classes of drugs that are preferred by physicians. Rapid uptake of drugs from the novel class of SGLT-2 inhibitors will occur; however, DPP-4 inhibitors and GLP-1 receptor agonists will continue dominating the noninsulin type 2 diabetes space. GLP-1 receptor agonists will experience the fastest growth of all classes (CAGR of 17%), due to their weight-loss effects and their novel once-weekly administration, which is preferable to the standard once- or twice-daily therapies.

A dip in sales caused by Actos patent expiry in 2012 and three insulin products’ patent expiry by 2015 will be offset by 16 pipeline product launches over the forecast period. Byetta’s patent expiration in 2016 will not have a major impact on the market as its sales have been constantly declining, with Victoza and Bydureon overtaking its shares.

Scope

-Overview of type 2 diabetes including epidemiology, etiology, symptoms, diagnosis, pathology and treatment guidelines as well as an overview on the competitive landscape.
-Detailed information on the key drugs in the UK including product description, safety and efficacy profiles as well as a SWOT analysis.
-Sales forecast for the top drugs in the UK from 2012-2022.
-Analysis of the impact of key events as well the drivers and restraints affecting the UK type 2 diabetes market.

Reasons to buy

-Understand and capitalize by identifying products that are most likely to ensure a robust return
-Stay ahead of the competition by understanding the changing competitive landscape for type 2 diabetes
-Effectively plan your M&A and partnership strategies by identifying drugs with the most promising sales potential
-Make more informed business decisions from insightful and in-depth analysis of drug performance
-Obtain sales forecast for drugs from 2012-2022 in the UK

Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents 5
1.1 List of Tables 8
1.2 List of Figures 11
2 Introduction 12
2.1 Catalyst 12
2.2 Related Reports 13
3 Disease Overview 16
3.1 Etiology and Pathophysiology 16
3.1.1 Etiology 16
3.1.2 Pathophysiology 17
3.1.3 Prognosis 18
3.1.4 Quality of Life 19
3.2 Symptoms 19
4 Disease Management 21
4.1 Treatment Overview 21
4.1.1 Diagnosis and Referrals 21
4.1.2 Treatment Guidelines 22
4.2 UK 28
4.2.1 Diagnosis 28
4.2.2 Clinical Practice 29
5 Competitive Assessment 32
5.1 Overview 32
5.2 Strategic Competitor Assessment 33
5.3 Product Profiles - Major Brands 35
5.3.1 Metformin 35
5.3.2 Sulfonylureas (SUs) and Other Insulin Secretagogues 40
5.3.3 α-glucosidase Inhibitors (AGIs) 44
5.3.4 Thiazolidinediones (TZDs) 47
5.3.5 GLP-1 Receptor Agonists 51
5.3.6 DPP-4 Inhibitors 70
5.3.7 SGLT-2 Inhibitors 93
5.3.8 Insulin Formulations 101
6 Opportunity and Unmet Need 121
6.1 Overview 121
6.2 Unmet Needs 122
6.2.1 Drugs Providing Sustained Glycemic Control 122
6.2.2 Drugs with Non-Glycemic Benefits 123
6.2.3 Increased Patient Compliance 124
6.2.4 Drugs with Improved Side-Effect Profiles 125
6.2.5 Earlier Diagnosis 126
6.3 Unmet Needs Gap Analysis 127
6.4 Oral Therapy with Sustainable Efficacy 128
6.5 Oral Therapy Offering Weight Loss 128
6.6 Cardio-metabolic Therapy 129
6.7 Promotion of Type 2 Diabetes Drugs in Emerging Markets 129
7 Pipeline Assessment 130
7.1 Overview 130
7.2 Promising Drugs in Clinical Development 131
7.2.1 Albiglutide 136
7.2.2 Dulaglutide (LY2189265) 141
7.2.3 Semaglutide 147
7.2.4 MK-3102 151
7.2.5 Empagliflozin 155
7.2.6 Tofogliflozin 160
7.2.7 Fasiglifam (TAK-875) 163
7.2.8 LY2409021 168
7.2.9 LY2605541 (insulin peglispro) 171
8 Market Outlook 176
8.1 UK 176
8.1.1 Forecast 176
8.1.2 Key Events 180
8.1.3 Drivers and Barriers 181
9 Appendix 184
9.1 Bibliography 184
9.2 Abbreviations 209
9.3 Methodology 212
9.4 Forecasting Methodology 212
9.4.1 Diagnosed Type 2 Patients 212
9.4.2 Percent Drug-Treated Patients 213
9.4.3 Drugs Included in Each Therapeutic Class 213
9.4.4 Launch and Patent Expiry Dates 214
9.4.5 General Pricing Assumptions 215
9.4.6 Individual Drug Assumptions 215
9.4.7 Pricing of Pipeline Agents 224
9.5 Physicians and Specialists Included in this Study 225
9.6 About the Authors 227
9.6.1 Analyst II - CVMD 227
9.6.2 Therapy Director - CVMD and Infectious Disease 227
9.6.3 Global Head of Healthcare 228
9.7 About GlobalData 229
9.8 Disclaimer 229

List of Tables

Table 1: Symptoms of Type 2 Diabetes 20
Table 2: Diagnostic Tests and Typical Criteria for Type 2 Diabetes 21
Table 3: Treatment Guidelines for Type 2 Diabetes 23
Table 4: Most-Prescribed Drugs (Following Metformin and Sulfonylureas) for Type 2 Diabetes by Class in the Global Markets, 2012 26
Table 5: Leading Branded Treatments for Type 2 Diabetes, 2012 34
Table 6: Product Profile - Metformin 37
Table 7: Metformin SWOT Analysis, 2012 39
Table 8: First-Generation Sulfonylureas 41
Table 9: Second-Generation Sulfonylureas 41
Table 10: Product Profile - Sulfonylureas 42
Table 11: Sulfonylureas SWOT Analysis, 2012 43
Table 12: Product Profile - Acarbose 45
Table 13: AGIs SWOT Analysis, 2012 47
Table 14: Product Profile - Actos 49
Table 15: Actos SWOT Analysis, 2012 51
Table 16: GLP-1 Receptor Agonists 53
Table 17: Product Profile - Byetta 55
Table 18: Byetta SWOT Analysis, 2012 57
Table 19: Product Profile - Victoza 59
Table 20: Victoza SWOT Analysis, 2012 61
Table 21: Product Profile - Bydureon 63
Table 22: Bydureon SWOT Analysis, 2012 65
Table 23: Product Profile - Lyxumia 67
Table 24: Lyxumia SWOT Analysis, 2012 70
Table 25: Marketed DPP-4 Inhibitors 72
Table 26: Marketed DPP-4 Inhibitors in Combination with Other OADs 72
Table 27: Product Profile - Januvia 74
Table 28: Januvia SWOT Analysis, 2012 76
Table 29: Product Profile - Onglyza 78
Table 30: Onglyza SWOT Analysis, 2012 80
Table 31: Product Profile - Tradjenta 82
Table 32: Tradjenta SWOT Analysis, 2012 84
Table 33: Product Profile - Galvus 86
Table 34: Galvus SWOT Analysis, 2012 89
Table 35: Product Profile - Nesina 90
Table 36: Nesina SWOT Analysis, 2012 92
Table 37: Product Profile - Forxiga 95
Table 38: Forxiga SWOT Analysis, 2012 97
Table 39: Product Profile - Invokana 98
Table 40: Invokana SWOT Analysis, 2012 100
Table 41: Insulins - Overview and Comparison 102
Table 42: Insulin Formulations 102
Table 43: Product Profile - Humalog 103
Table 44: Humalog SWOT Analysis, 2012 105
Table 45: Product Profile - Lantus 106
Table 46: Lantus SWOT Analysis, 2012 109
Table 47: Product Profile - Levemir 110
Table 48: Levemir SWOT Analysis, 2012 112
Table 49: Product Profile - Novolog 113
Table 50: Novolog SWOT Analysis, 2012 114
Table 51: Product Profile - Apidra 115
Table 52: Apidra SWOT Analysis, 2012 117
Table 53: Product Profile - Tresiba 118
Table 54: Tresiba SWOT Analysis, 2012 120
Table 55: Overall Unmet Needs - Current Level of Attainment 121
Table 56: Clinical Unmet Needs - Gap Analysis, 2013 127
Table 57: Type 2 Diabetes - Phase Pipeline, 2012 133
Table 58: Comparison of Therapeutic Classes in Development for Type 2 Diabetes, 2012 134
Table 59: Product Profile - Albiglutide 137
Table 60: Albiglutide SWOT Analysis, 2013 141
Table 61: Product Profile - Dulaglutide 143
Table 62: Dulaglutide SWOT Analysis, 2012 147
Table 63: Product Profile - Semaglutide 148
Table 64: Semaglutide SWOT Analysis, 2012 151
Table 65: Product Profile - MK-3102 152
Table 66: MK-3102 SWOT Analysis, 2013 154
Table 67: Product Profile - Empagliflozin 156
Table 68: Empagliflozin SWOT Analysis, 2013 159
Table 69: Product Profile - Tofogliflozin 161
Table 70: Tofogliflozin SWOT Analysis, 2013 163
Table 71: Product Profile - Fasiglifam 164
Table 72: Fasiglifam SWOT Analysis, 2013 167
Table 73: Product Profile - LY2409021 169
Table 74: LY2409021 SWOT Analysis, 2013 171
Table 75: Product Profile - LY2605541 172
Table 76: LY2605541 SWOT Analysis, 2013 175
Table 77: UK Sales Forecasts ($m) for Type 2 Diabetes, 2012-2022 177
Table 78: Key Events Impacting Sales for Type 2 Diabetes in the UK, 2012-2022 180
Table 79: Type 2 Diabetes Market - Drivers and Barriers in the UK, 2012 181
Table 80: Key Launch Dates 214
Table 81: Key Patent Expiries 214
Table 82: Number of High-Prescribing Physicians Surveyed 226

List of Figures

Figure 1: ADA/EASD General Recommendations for Antihyperglycemic Therapy 25
Figure 2: Competitive Assessment of Late-Stage Pipeline Agents in Type 2 Diabetes, 2012-2022 135
Figure 3: Sales for Type 2 Diabetes in the UK by Drug Class, 2012-2022 179

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PharmaPoint: Type 2 Diabetes - UK Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022

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    +44 208 816 85 48
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