New Research Shows That Economic Stagnation Is No Excuse For Climate Inaction
(PRWEB UK) 4 July 2013 -- But a letter published today in Nature Climate Change by Dr Chris Hope, Reader in Policy Modelling, Cambridge Judge Business School and Mat Hope, School of Sociology, Politics, and International Studies, University of Bristol, suggests this neglect is unwise.
The research estimates the mean damage caused by emitting an additional tonne of carbon dioxide today is $107 per tonne if economic growth in the rich world is around 2% per year. But if rich economies continue to stagnate the mean damage rises to $138 per tonne.
So governments should feel more compelled - not less - to implement climate policies if their economies are slow to come out of recession.
The main reason for the greater damage in a low growth world is that people will have less money than expected when the worst impacts of climate change hit, and so each dollar of damage will be felt more keenly. The global average GDP per person if rich economies don’t grow is only $27,000 in 2100, about $10,000 less than current GDP per capita in the UK.
But rapid economic growth also increases the damage from emitting carbon dioxide, as shown in the figure below. This is because the worst effects of climate change are much more likely to occur due to the far greater emissions and temperature change associated with economic growth of over 3% per year.
The results suggest that, even allowing for the effect of the UK’s new carbon floor price, the current European carbon price is nearly $100 per tonne too low.
The social cost of CO2 in a low-growth world
– ENDS –
Notes to Editors
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About Dr Chris Hope
Dr Hope is a Reader in Policy Modelling at Cambridge Judge Business School and a climate change policy researcher interested in environment and energy.
He was the specialist advisor to the House of Lords Select Committee on Economic Affairs Inquiry into aspects of the economics of climate change, and an advisor on the PAGE model to the Stern review on the Economics of Climate Change. He has published extensively in books and peer-reviewed journals. He is the developer of PAGE09, the latest version of the PAGE integrated assessment model. http://www.chrishopepolicy.com, http://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/research/faculty/hopec.html,
About Cambridge Judge Business School
Cambridge Judge Business School is internationally recognised as one of the leading providers of innovative, intellectually challenging and practical business management education across a portfolio of undergraduate, graduate and executive programmes. As a fully integrated department of a world renowned university, Cambridge Judge Business School hosts one of the largest concentrations of interdisciplinary business and management research activity in Europe. Built on an ethos of collaboration, the School is a unique place where policy makers, regulators, industry leaders, not for profit organisations, entrepreneurs and academics can meet, interact and share ideas. Cambridge Judge Business School delivers business education for the 21st Century networked economy, fostering collaborative leadership skills, developing communities of partners to meet the challenges of the new global business landscape. http://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/
Helen Maher, Cambridge Judge Business School, 01223 764 219, [email protected]
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