Andy May, Mortgage Expert, and Brett Bushnell Explain the Wake (Raleigh), Durham, and Orange (Chapel Hill) County Housing Market for July 2013

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Closed sales up 31% year over year in the red hot market of Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill.

andymay@adrmortgage.com

The Triangle continues to attract highly educated, open-minded affluent people from around the world.

The data point to continued short supply of housing stock in the Triangle, as Andy May, the mortgage expert, and Brett Bushnell, realtor, explain the data (919-608-2141). At some point with the rise in interest rates (from 3.5% to 5% - and now back to 4.5%) we will see the housing market come off its record 1 year marks. Remember, real estate is cyclical and the government is not particularly surgeon-like, responding with a sledge hammer to an issue that can get quite out of hand at the local level.

When purchasing a home few people think about the timing of their purchase, as they are more interested in schools (school data can be found at http://www.adrmortgage.com) and location. Well, I for one like to know the effects of poorly timing real estate markets. And right now the Triangle appears to be ready to break out on the positive side of home price increases.

Home sales in the three counties are up 34-39% in Wake, Orange and Durham counties year over year July 2012-13 (according to Triangle NMLS). Brett Bushnell, Realtor, can provide neighborhood level data when looking more specifically. (919) 608-2141. On a year to date (12 months ending July 2013) basis Durham falls to +17% while Wake and Orange are at 31% home sale increases.

Digging a little deeper in the statistics we find that Durham saw a strong 3.9% average sales price increase for the year to date ending July 2013 (wake county 2.8% and Orange almost 0%).

While all this is interesting, what about the future housing stock and unemployment rates in these three counties? It appears Wake County has the lowest housing supply (under 5 months) Durham at slightly over 5 months and Orange at almost 6 1/2 months supply (highly correlated with pricing changes). These indicators imply a heated housing market. A supply under 5 months is considered a sellers' market.

Couple the housing stock numbers with job growth (and unemployment) and future home prices can be predicted with relative accuracy. According to WRAL, the Triangle has some of the lowest State unemployment levels. This site has a color-coordinated map that easily illustrates that future job growth is around Guilford and the counties of the Triangle area (Mecklenburg and Guilford counties are at 8.5% and 8.6% unemployment respectively). The Triangle generally has unemployment in the 6% or lower range.

Triangle home price appreciation follows a low overall unemployment rate with a short supply of housing stock.

For more information on mortgage loans, call ADRMortgage.com at 919 771 3379 or visit ADRMortgage on the web. Brett Bushnell, realtor, states, "the combination of excellent job opportunities with a highly educated work force keeps making the Triangle one of the top 5 relocation markets in the country."

Get the most value out of a home sale or purchase by working with licensed professionals that have significant experience. You’ll be thankful you did. You can find additional information from Andy May, mortgage expert, at Andy May's blog. ADRMortgage.com was founded by Andy May in 2005. For additional information please go to http://www.adrmortgage.com or contact Andy May directly. License number 103418.

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Andrew May
ADR Mortgage
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