U.S. Corn Crop Yield Forecasts Experience One Correction after Another Indicating the Need for Better Crop Forecasting Tools

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Genscape’s LandViewer crop forecast remains the most accurate; Next generation of corn crop analytics better accounts for unprecedented weather patterns.

“During the second week of August our clients were well prepared for market movements stemming from a widely over-predicted supply by other analysts” states Dr. Steffen Mueller.

Yesterday, another major corn crop forecaster, owned by Reuters, lowered their corn yield crop forecast to come further in line with Genscape’s LandViewer crop predictions. The LandViewer model deploys a wide variety of next generation data acquisition techniques and far more granular analytics to deliver improved accuracy and market transparency.

LandViewer predicted the US corn crop to total 12.6 billion bushels on August 6 while the Dow Jones survey of 24 other analysts during that time averaged 14 billion bushels. Many downward crop forecasts these days cite “unprecedented weather patterns” as a justification. However, this is not the case as the next generation LandViewer model shows.

In truth crop forecasting models are based on fairly straight forward regression equations whereby analysts predict historically realized bushels (the dependent variable) by using weather variables, time, vegetation indices, other remotely sensed data, crop scouting, and biophysical soil carbon characteristics (the independent variables). Genscape has created proprietary regression equations that produce results in the right direction even if/when individual input variables move towards their outer range.

Additionally, the Genscape has developed a time-tested methodology to quickly modify the database of input variables to reduce noise in the data – often introduced because of too much historical data masking recent trends and limiting transparency.

Genscape’s LandViewer team anticipated that the wet spring and late-planted crop would portend a probability of unusual risk factors independent of the flash drought. Because the Genscape LandViewer model was originally developed as a regional county-level model combined with county level ground truthing to inform the regional grain markets, the LandViewer model was uniquely positioned to detect this year’s regional problem areas in Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois that have a big national impact. Further, the LandViewer model now runs thousands of simulations across 1,100 top corn producing counties delivering high granularity, probabilistic forecasts. All simulations are correlated with ground thruthing by experienced agricultural consultants with a strong background in soil science.

“During the second week of August our clients were well prepared for market movements stemming from a widely over-predicted supply by other analysts” states Dr. Steffen Mueller. Again, the Genscape LandViewer Team anticipates that there will be a solid supply of corn this year but it is clear that the US corn crop is a long way now from the 14 billion bushels predicted in early August by everyone but LandViewer.

To learn more, please visit: http://www.genscape.com/nextgenforecast

About Genscape

Genscape is the leading global provider of energy information for commodity and financial markets. Utilizing patented technologies and proprietary algorithms, Genscape provides accurate & timely data on capacities, flow and utilization for all major energy commodities. With thousands of sophisticated energy monitors strategically deployed all over the world, Genscape is unique in its ability to measure and collect energy market fundamentals. These “measured actuals” are then transmitted to clients in real-time or near real-time. Genscape clients often gain first-mover advantage and increased market transparency to better optimize their positions. For more information, please visit: http://www.genscape.com

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David Francoeur
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